Prepared by Lydia Stefanova, Daniel J. Brouillette, and David F. Zierden.
Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

Average temperatures in July were mostly above normal. The departures from average temperatures in July 2018 were above normal across most of the state, ranging from -0.5˚F in Miami to +2.5˚F in Melbourne (Table 1 and Appendix 1). July 2018 was the warmest on record in Key West, 3rd warmest in Melbourne, and 8th warmest in Tampa and Fort Lauderdale. Several warm temperature records were tied or broken across the state (Appendix 2).        

Table 1: July average temperatures and departures from normal (˚F) for selected cities.

Rainfall totals in July were mixed across the state. Rainfall totals in July 2018 were mixed across the state (Figure 1). Departures from normal roughly ranged from -2.44” in St. Petersburg to +2.31 ” in Jacksonville (Table 2 and Appendix 1), though localized parts of the state saw rainfall totals that were as much as 4.00” below normal to more than 8.00” above normal (Figure 1). One 24-hour precipitation record was broken for the month (Table 3).

Table 2: July precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for select cities.

Table 3: Select daily rainfall records (inches) broken during July. (Compiled from NOAA, NWS).

Figure 1: A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for July is given in the figure below (courtesy of NOAA, NWS)

ENSO-Neutral Conditions are Present in the Pacific.   

Based on current data and forecast models, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has set the ENSO Alert System Status to El Niño Watch. ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present, with sea surface temperatures (SST) near- to above-average across most of the Pacific Ocean. ENSO-neutral conditions are favored through the summer, with an increasing probability of El Niño developing into Fall and Winter 2018.  The CPC seasonal outlook favors above-normal temperatures for Florida through September 2018.

Hazardous Weather Events in July.

A total of 385 hazardous weather events were logged in the National Weather Service’s Local Storm Reports database for the state during the month of July (see Table 4 for a breakdown by type). The most frequent types of hazardous weather conditions encountered throughout the month involved high winds and storm damage. Over half (199) of all hazardous weather occurred between the 21st and 23rd of the month when the circulation was impacted by a low-pressure system over the area. 

Two hazardous weather-related fatalities and several injuries were reported as a result of thunderstorms, lightning, and rip currents. Strong thunderstorm winds downing a large tree in Daytona Beach caused one injury and one fatality on the 22nd of the month. Two people were injured by a lightning strike on the 10th of the month in Palm Beach. One fatality was the result of a rip current at the coast near Melbourne. According to broadcast media, over 140 people were rescued from rip currents along the coast of Volusia County between the 10th and 11th of the month. 

Thunderstorm wind gusts exceeding 50 mph were measured on various instances in Alachua, Bay, Brevard, Collier, Duval, Franklin, Manatee, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, Pinellas, and Volusia Counties. Gusts over 60 mph were reported on the 23rd over St. George Island in Franklin County and near Dunedin in Pinellas County. 

Three weak and brief tornadoes were seen in South Florida (in Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties), and three more were reported in St. Johns, Flagler, and Lake Counties.  There were 21 waterspouts observed along the Atlantic Coast, with 18 of those reported in the area from Miami to the Florida Keys. Eight waterspouts were observed in the Gulf coastal waters between Clearwater and Pensacola. 

Table 4: Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of July (Compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet.)

Drought-Related Impacts. 

As of the latest US Drought Monitor Report issued on July 24th the entire state has remained free since the end of May, despite the below-normal rainfall in parts of the state during the last month. 

At the end of the month, Lake Okeechobee water levels were at 14.36 ft., which is somewhat higher than normal for this time of the year. Algal bloom in the lake remains a serious concern, as it is now covering some 40% of the lake surface. Water releases from the lake are being made to ensure available lake capacity since the tropical season has the potential to fill the lake in a very short period

Agriculture-Related Impacts. 

At the beginning of July, topsoil moisture levels were at mainly adequate (82%) or surplus (16%). By the end of the month topsoils were somewhat wetter, with 72% adequate and 24% surplus values. 

During most of the month the citrus growing region has been experiencing normal to above-normal temperatures, with frequent and widespread rainshowers. Canals and ditches generally had ample water for irrigation, and irrigation was run as needed in areas that received less rain. The citrus fruit are developing well and growers have a positive outlook for the upcoming crop. Pasture quality has been mostly good, although oversaturated pastures and standing water have been observed in some low-lying fields in areas that received large amounts of rain, particularly in the northern part of the state. Cattle are in mostly good condition. Hay cutting was going on throughout the month in Dixie, Jackson, Levy, and Lafayette Counties, with delays in areas with wet conditions. Row crop planting in the Panhandle has been delayed because of oversaturated fields, and peanut plantings in Levy County are suffering from excess water. Corn was being harvested in Dixie, Levy, Okeechobee, and Palm Beach Counties. Sugarcane is doing well.

Appendix 1: Additional July departures from normal data for Florida locations.

Appendix 2: Select daily maximum and minimum temperature records (° F) broken or tied during July (compiled from NOAA, NWS). 

Prepared by Daniel J. Brouillette
Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

Mean temperatures in August were mainly near to slightly above normal across the state, except in a portion of the north-central part of the peninsula, where they were considerably above normal. The anomalies in monthly mean temperature were mix of positive and negative across the state but near to slightly above normal, overall, ranging from as positive as +2.6˚F at Gainesville and Melbourne in the north-central part of the state to as negative as -0.7˚F at Fort Myers and Miami in the coastal southern sections (Table 1 and Appendix 1).  Continuing a long-term trend, anomalies in monthly mean minimum temperature were more positive than anomalies in monthly mean maximum temperatures.  August 2018 was the second warmest at Melbourne, sixth warmest at Gainesville, and seventh warmest at Orlando.  Several high temperature records and one low temperature record were tied or broken across the state (Appendix 2). 

Table 1. August average temperatures and departures from normal (˚F) for selected cities.

Rainfall totals in August were much above normal over most of the panhandle, near to above normal in the western one-third of the peninsula, and below normal in many areas of the eastern peninsula and Keys, with considerable local variability characteristic of the summer months in Florida (Figure 1).  Station anomalies ranged from -5.51” at Melbourne to +6.83” at Tampa (Table 2 and Appendix 1) (Figure 1). A few 24-hour precipitation records broken for the month (Table 3).

Table 2. August precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Table 3. Select daily rainfall records (inches) broken during August. (Compiled from NOAA, NWS)

Figure 1. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for May is given in the figure below (courtesy of NOAA, NWS). 

ENSO-neutral conditions are present in the Pacific, with El Niño favored to develop.

Based on current data and forecast models, forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) have issued an El Niño Watch.  ENSO-neutral conditions currently are present, with sea-surface temperatures (SST) near to above average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The chance of El Niño development during the climatological boreal autumn (from now through the end of November) is rated at near 60% and near 70% during the climatological boreal winter (December-January-February).  The CPC seasonal outlook favors above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation through September 2018.  For the climatological autumn as a whole (through the end of November), there is equal probability of below-, near-, and above-normal temperatures and above-normal rainfall in Florida.

Hazardous Weather Events in August.

According the Local Storm Reports (LSRs) issued by the local National Weather Service (NWS) offices serving Florida, 208 instances of hazardous weather were reported across the state in August 2018. 

Table 4. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of August. (Compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet.)

Drought-Related Impacts

At the end of August, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, all of Florida was drought free, continuing conditions that have been present since the late spring.  Western Escambia County, accounting for 0.26% of the state’s land area, had abnormally dry conditions in the second half of the month, owing to rainfall deficits over the last 30 to 60 days. 

As of 5 September, the Lake Okeechobee water level was at 14.65 ft. above sea level, which is above average for this time of the year.

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

At the beginning of September, topsoil-moisture levels were at mainly adequate although about one-quarter of the state had surplus topsoil-moisture levels, mainly on the panhandle, and about two percent was short on topsoil moisture.

A major theme through the month has been the continuation of very wet soil conditions on the panhandle, which has hindered the cutting of hay and the harvest of peanuts at times.  Flooded low-lying areas in the St. Johns River valley negatively impacted cattle pasture lands.  Summer crops, including avocado, bitter melon, boniato, malanga, mango, and okra, were harvested; good conditions generally persisted for citrus, allowing spray schedules to be followed and grove maintenance performed.  The preparation of land for fall vegetable cultivation was managed as conditions allowed and planting started. 

Appendix 1
Additional May Departures from Normal Data for Florida Locations

Appendix 2
Select daily maximum and minimum temperature records (^oF) tied or broken during May.
(Compiled from NOAA, NWS)

*This value ties the all-time highest minimum temperature ever recorded at Melbourne (records back to 1937), last set on 14 July 2017. 

Prepared by Daniel J. Brouillette
Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

Mean temperatures in October were much above normal statewide (Table 1 and Appendix 1). October 2018 was the warmest on record at Tampa and Key West (the second consecutive at both locations), as well as other less major stations, and in the top five warmest on record at several other stations. Several high temperature records were tied or broken across the state (Appendix 2).

Table 1. October average temperatures and departures from normal (˚F) for selected cities.

Rainfall totals in October were below normal except in the central and eastern panhandle (Figure 1). Rainfall was somewhat above normal in the central and eastern panhandle owing to Hurricane Michael on the 10th of the month. 24-hour precipitation records were broken for the month (Table 3).

Table 2. October precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Table 3. Select daily rainfall records (inches) broken during October. (Compiled from NOAA, NWS)

Figure 1. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for October is given in the figure below (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

ENSO-neutral conditions are present in the Pacific, with El Niño favored to develop.

Based on current data and forecast models, forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) continue with an El Niño Watch. ENSO-neutral conditions currently are present, with sea-surface temperatures (SST) above average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño development is favored by the end of the climatological boreal autumn (from now through the end of November), and the chance of development is 70-75% during the climatological boreal winter (December-January-February). The CPC seasonal outlook favors above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation statewide through November 2018.

Hazardous Weather Events in October.

According the Local Storm Reports (LSRs) issued by the local National Weather Service (NWS) offices serving Florida, nnn instances of hazardous weather were reported across the state in October 2018. Of special interest was Hurricane Michael, which made landfall on the 10th as a high-end Category 4 storm near Mexico Beach and was the third-strongest storm ever to landfall on the United States in terms of minimum central pressure.

Table 4. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of October. (Compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet.)

Drought-Related Impacts

At the end of October, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, abnormally dry conditions were present in a large area from the Space Coast, south along the coast to near Miami and southwest from there, as well as in northeast Florida in the Jacksonville area.

As of 5 November, the Lake Okeechobee water level was at 13.65 ft. above sea level, which is near average for this time of the year.

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

At the end of October, topsoil-moisture levels were at surplus or adequate over two-thirds of the state, with the remaining third very short or short. Citrus harvest got underway this month; the early harvest has looked good, according to reports, and groves and trees also look to be in good condition. By the end of the month, the irrigation of crop vegetables was required because of dry conditions developing. Cattle conditions remained good as of the end of the month. Hurricane Michael decimated the cotton crop, especially those plants that were already defoliated prior to the storm, with 10-90% crop loss depending on the county. Peanuts on the panhandle suffered significant losses; late-season yields were halved.

At the end of the month, two-thirds of the state had topsoil that were adequate or excess in terms of moisture, with the balance of the state short or very short.

Appendix 1
Additional September Departures from Normal Data for Florida Locations

Appendix 2
Select daily maximum and minimum temperature records (^oF) tied or broken during September.
(Compiled from NOAA, NWS)

Prepared by Daniel J. Brouillette
Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

Mean temperatures in November ranged from much above normal on the Keys to somewhat above normal on the peninsula to somewhat below normal on the panhandle (Table 1 and Appendix 1). It was the second-warmest November at Key West. Several high temperature records were tied or broken across the state (Appendix 2).

Table 1. November average temperatures and departures from normal (˚F) for selected cities.

Rainfall totals in November were above normal in north and parts of central Florida and near to below normal south of those areas (Figure 1). (Table 3).

Table 2. November precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Table 3. Select daily rainfall records (inches) broken during November. (Compiled from NOAA, NWS)

Figure 1. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for November is given in the figure below (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

ENSO-neutral conditions are present in the Pacific, with El Niño to develop.

Based on current data and forecast models, forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) continue with an El Niño Watch. ENSO-neutral conditions currently are present, with sea-surface temperatures (SST) above average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño is expected to develop, continuing through boreal winter (~80% chance) and possibly into the boreal spring (55-60% chance). The CPC seasonal outlook favors above-normal temperatures statewide and above-normal rainfall statewide, especially on the panhandle, in December 2018.

Hazardous Weather Events in November.

According the Local Storm Reports (LSRs) issued by the local National Weather Service (NWS) offices serving Florida, 92 instances of hazardous weather were reported across the state in November 2018.

Table 4. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of November. (Compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet.)

Drought-Related Impacts

At the end of November, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, abnormally dry conditions were present over much of the eastern half of the peninsula, with moderate-drought conditions found in the far northeast, along the central Atlantic coast, and on the west side of Lake Okeechobee. However, it is noted that November begins the dry season on the peninsula.

As of 3 December, the Lake Okeechobee water level was at 13.03 ft. above sea level, which is a bit below average for this time of the year.

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

At the end of November, top-soil moisture was adequate over half the state, short or very short over about one-third, and at surplus over the balance. The first frost or freeze had occurred during the month as far south as north-central Florida. Citrus harvest was underway, but progress was behind what is was last year at this time. Pasture quality was seeing decline late in the month in the north because of cool, wet conditions and in the south because of drier conditions. Nonetheless, cattle condition remained good. Frequent rain in the panhandle hindered the cotton harvest. Most peanuts have been harvested, but some remained in Jackson and Holmes counties at the end of the month.

Appendix 1
Additional November Departures from Normal Data for Florida Locations

Appendix 2
Select daily maximum and minimum temperature records (^oF) tied or broken during November.
(Compiled from NOAA, NWS)

*This value ties the all-time highest minimum temperature ever recorded at Key West for the month of November (records back to 1872); the last occurrence was on 9 November 2015.