Prepared by Lydia Stefanova and David F. Zierden.
Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

Average temperatures in June were mostly above normal across the state. The departures from average temperatures in June 2016 were mostly above normal across the state, ranging from -0.1˚F in St Petersburg to +2.8˚F in Tallahassee (Table 1 and Appendix 1). Despite the warm monthly average temperatures, Fort Myers was the only major reporting stations to register a maximum temperature at or above 95F. June 2016 was the 3rd warmest on record in Miami and Vero Beach, 6th warmest on record for West Palm Beach and Daytona Beach, 7th for Tallahassee, and 8th for Tampa. Several maximum and minimum temperature records were tied or broken across the state in June (Appendix 2).

Table 1: June average temperatures and departures from normal (˚F) for selected cities.

Rainfall totals in June were varied. The departures from average rainfall were highly varied across the state (Figure 1). Tropical Storm Colin made landfall on June 6 in Taylor County and brought heavy rainfall over portions of Florida, resulting in flooding in some areas, especially Hillsborough and Pinellas counties. Major reporting stations registered departures from normal for the month ranging from -3.36” in Jacksonville to +8.42 in St Petersburg (Table 2 and Appendix 1), although localized parts of the state saw rainfall totals that were as much as 5” below normal to over 8” above normal (Figure 1). There were a small number of 24-hour precipitation records broken for the month (Table 3).

Table 2: June precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for select cities.

Figure 1: A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for June (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

Neutral ENSO Conditions are Present in the Pacific.

Based on current data and forecast models, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC)’s ENSO Alert System at Final El Niño Advisory/La Niña watch. El Niño has been replaced by ENSO-neutral conditions, with sea surface temperatures near average across the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. There is approximately a 75% chance that La Niña conditions for the fall and winter season of 2016/2017. In its seasonal outlook, CPC predicts a higher than average chance of above-normal precipitation and warmer-than-normal temperatures for Florida for July-September 2016.

Hazardous Weather Events in June.

A total of 440 hazardous weather reports were made in the month of June in Florida. The largest proportion of these reports were concerning high winds, followed by storm damage, heavy rain and thunderstorms (See Table 4 for a full breakdown). A large number of these events were associated with winds and rain from tropical storm Colin between June 5h and June 8th. Colin made landfall on June 6th along the Big Bend of Florida with maximum sustained winds of 50mph. Rainbands from Colin brought thunderstorms with strong gusts to the stretch between St Petersburg, Clearwater, and Tampa and Daytona Beach to Jacksonville, knocking down trees and power lines. Localized areas received rainfall in excess of 11 inches in a single day. Heavy rains and storm surge contributed to flooding along parts of the Gulf Coast, from Southwest Florida to Panama City. Dangerous rip currents developed along the Gulf Coast in the aftermath of the storm resulting in swimmers requiring rescue, and causing several casualties in the Panhandle.

Table 4: Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of June (Compiled from Southeast Regional Climate Center.)

Agriculture-Related Impacts. 

At the start of the month, soil moisture levels were mostly adequate (58%) to short (30%), transitioning to overall wetter conditions (61% adequate, 17% short and 15% surplus) towards the end of the month, mostly because of rains from tropical storm Colin. Warmer than average temperatures have put slight heat stress on some fields. Planting of corn, cotton, peanut, and soybean crops was completed in the Panhandle counties. Pastures and livestock are overall generally in good condition, although some fields had temporary standing water for several days following heavy rains. Warm temperatures do not seem to have had a negative impact on cattle. The citrus region remained entirely drought free, and canals and ditches are at acceptable levels. Irrigation is run in most groves two to three times a week. Some grower shave observed postbloom fruit drop in their groves, as well as some citrus greening which is being taken care of by removal of affected trees and replanting. Overall, growers are positive about the outlook of their trees and the crop for next season.

Drought-Related Impacts. 

According to the US Drought Monitor, Florida remained completely drought-free throughout the month of June. Water levels at lake Okeechobee are above average for the season, at 14.94 feet. 

Appendix 1: Additional June departures from normal data for Florida locations.

Appendix 2: Select daily maximum and minimum temperature records (° F) broken during June (compiled from NOAA, NWS).  

Prepared by Lydia Stefanova and David F. Zierden.
Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

Average temperatures in July were above normal across the state. The departures from average temperatures in July 2016 were above normal across the entire state, ranging from +0.6˚F in Miami and Key West to +3.0˚F in Tallahassee (Table 1 and Appendix 1). Across the state this was one of the top five warmest July months on record. It was the top warmest July on record for Daytona Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Melbourne, Orlando, Tampa and West Palm Beach. Multiple warm maximum and minimum temperature records were tied or broken (Appendix 2).

Table 1: July average temperatures and departures from normal (˚F) for selected cities.

Rainfall totals in July were below normal for most of the state. Most of the state had below normal rainfall (Figure 1). Major reporting stations registered departures from normal ranging from -4.87’’ in Melbourne to +0.76” in Tallahassee (Table 2 and Appendix 1), although localized parts of the state saw rainfall totals that were more than 5” below normal to 5” above normal (Figure 1).  This was one of the top five driest July months on record for most of the state’s Atlantic coast from Jacksonville to West Palm beach. No 24-hour precipitation records were broken for the month.

Table 2: July precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for select cities.

Figure 1: A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for July (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

Neutral ENSO Conditions are Present in the Pacific.

Based on current data and forecast models, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) ENSO Alert System is at a La Niña Watch. ENSO neutral conditions are present, with sea surface temperature (SST) near or below average across most of the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.  Development of La Nina is favored during August-October 2016, with a 55-60% chance of La Nina during the fall and winter of 2016/2017. CPC predicts high likelihood of above normal temperatures across the state for August 2016 through October 2016.

Hazardous Weather Events in July.

AThere were a total of 234 hazardous weather events reports submitted in Florida for the month of July (see Table 4 for a breakdown by event type). Numerous strong wind gusts associated with seasonal severe thunderstorms were reported throughout the state. Some thunderstorms produced up to half-inch sized hail. Reports of wind damage from severe thunderstorms were widespread from Tampa to Jacksonville, mainly entailing downed trees and powerlines. There were several instances of lightning strikes causing fires (Volusia, Santa Rosa, Palm Beach, St Johns, Pinellas Counties) or injuries (Alachua and Pinellas Counties), including a fatality in Lee County on July 25th. One person was hospitalized after nearly drowning in a rip current off the coast of St. Lucie County on July 23.

Table 4: Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of July (Compiled from Southeast Regional Climate Center.)

Agriculture-Related Impacts. 

According to the USDA at the beginning of July, topsoil moisture levels were at mainly (60%) adequate, though some (15%) surplus values and short (19%) values were reported across the state. Not much change in these levels was seen as of the latest report for the week ending on July 24. Early in the month there were reports of some flooding in low-lying pastures in the southwestern portion of the state. As the month progressed, warm temperatures and small amounts of rainfall have left many pastures across the state somewhat dry and in need of moisture. Overall, pasture and cattle conditions across the state are mostly good, although some stress to livestock due to high temperatures has been reported in some areas. The citrus-producing area started the month drought-free with abnormally dry conditions creeping in towards the end of the month. Temperatures have been above average on most days, and rainfall has been below average for the season but canals and ditches are still at acceptable levels. Most citrus growers have been irrigating several times a week. Fruit and vegetable growers have increased irrigation because of hot and dry weather. Some hail damage to vegetable farms was reported in Okaloosa County early in the month. Dry conditions have helped hay harvesting in Bradford, Dixie, Flagler, Putnam, Taylor and Walton counties. Corn and tobacco harvests are also underway. Sugarcane fields are reporting low moisture levels. Sugarcane in Palm Beach County is sufficiently irrigated with water from Lake Okeechobee.

Drought-Related Impacts. 

At the beginning of July, according to the US Drought Monitor, Florida was entirely drought free. Mid-month, abnormally dry (D0) conditions crept in the northeastern portion of the state (Madison, Hamilton, Suwannee, Columbia, Baker Counties). As rain deficits accumulated, drought conditions towards the end of the month extended south along the Atlantic Coast into Nassau, Duval, St Johns, Flagler, Volusia, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, Brevard, Indian River, and St Lucie Counties.  As of July 26th, approximately 88% of the state is drought-free, and the remaining approximately 12% is experiencing abnormally dry conditions. Water levels in lake Okeechobee remain above average for the season, at 14.63 feet.

Appendix 1: Additional July departures from normal data for Florida locations.

Appendix 2: Select daily maximum and minimum temperature records (° F) broken during July (compiled from NOAA, NWS).  

Prepared by Lydia Stefanova and David F. Zierden.
Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

Average temperatures for August in Florida were mostly above normal. The average temperatures in August 2016 were above normal for most of the state, although some below-normal average monthly temperatures were also recorded. Average temperatures departure from normal ranged from -2.0˚F in St. Petersburg to +2.9˚F in Tallahassee (Table 1 and Appendix 1). August 2016 was the warmest on record in West Palm Beach, 2nd warmest for Daytona Beach, 3rd warmest in Tallahassee, 5th warmest for Vero Beach, 10th warmest for Tampa, yet also 10th coldest for St. Petersburg. Multiple maximum and minimum temperature records were tied or broken across the state in August (Appendix 2).

Table 1: August average temperatures and departures from normal (˚F) for selected cities.

Rainfall totals in August were varied across the state. Rainfall totals were above normal along much of the Gulf Coast and parts of Central and South Florida, and below normal for most of the northeastern portion of the state (Figure 1). Major reporting stations registered departures from normal ranging from -4.15” in Jacksonville to +7.11” in St Petersburg (Table 2 and Appendix 1), although localized parts of the state saw rainfall totals that were as much as 5” below normal to over 8” above normal (Figure 1).  August 2016 was the wettest on record in Tampa and Ocala, and 3rd wettest in St Petersburg. Several 24-hour precipitation records were broken for the month (Table 3), some stemming from precipitation associated with the approach of the tropical system that eventually became Hurricane Hermine at the end of the month.

Table 2: August precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for select cities.

Table 3: Select daily rainfall records (inches) broken during August (compiled from NOAA, NWS).

Figure 1: A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for August is given in the figure below (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

ENSO-Neutral Conditions are Present in the Pacific.

Based on current data and forecast models, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) ENSO Alert System status is set to La Niña Watch. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies in the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean are near or below average. There is approximately a 55-60% chance for La Niña conditions during the fall and winter 2016-2017. CPC’s outlook suggests an increased likelihood of warmer than normal temperatures for Florida for September through November 2016.

Hazardous Weather Events in August.

There were a total of 225 severe weather reports made in Florida during February. The bulk of these (208) were the result of just two cold front A total of 225 hazardous weather events were logged for August in Florida by the Southeast Regional Climate Center (see Table 4 for a breakdown by event type). The majority of reports were related to high winds. Of these, about half were related to the tropical system that eventually became hurricane Hermine by August 31. Localized thunderstorms and some instances of storm damage were reported at various locations throughout the month. Heavy rains and tidal flooding were an issue for residents from Sarasota to St. Petersburg on the 30th-31st. Earlier in the month, on the 4th, an EF-1 tornado with winds up to 100mph touched down in Nassau County on the 4th, causing damage to trees, power lines and homes, and overturning several vehicles. Multiple waterspouts were reported throughout the Florida Keys. Several lightning injuries were reported throughout the state on various dates, including two in Broward County on the 4th, one in Daytona Beach on the 14th, and in Orlando on the 16th; there were also two fatalities resulting from lightning strikes, in Okaloosa Island on the 5th and Sarasota on the 26th.

Table 4: Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of August (Compiled from Southeast Regional Climate Center.)

Agriculture Related Impacts. 

Soil moisture conditions throughout the state have been mostly reported as adequate throughout the month, although some portions of the state (about 15-20%) are reporting short and a similar percentage are reporting surplus values. For most of the month the citrus growing counties were experiencing above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall, with some parts affected by abnormally dry conditions as defined by the US Drought Monitor. Most groves have required daily irrigation, and growers have been spraying against greening disease. Land preparation for fall fruit and vegetable planting is ongoing.  Pastures and cattle have been in mostly good conditions, although pasture quality is beginning to seasonally decline as grasses mature. Some areas that have received large amounts of rainfall report standing water in pastures. Corn harvesting has been ongoing in the Panhandle. Cotton and soybeans were mostly in good condition although some farmers were reporting problems with fungus and insects. Peanut harvesting has begun in Lafayette and Gilchrist Counties, and anticipated to begin soon in Dixie, Levy, and Suwannee Counties. Sugarcane in  Glades, Hendry, Lee and Palm Beach Counties is in good condition.

Drought Related Impacts. 

At the beginning of August, most (83%) of the state was drought-free, while roughly 17% of the state (mainly northeastern Panhandle counties and along the Atlantic Coast) was experiencing abnormally dry (D0) conditions. Rainfall by the second week of the month lifted D0 conditions from Dade to St. Lucie Counties and most of the Panhandle. As the month progressed, new D0 conditions started creeping into the northeastern corner of the state (Clay, Duval, Flagler, Nassau, Putnam, and St. Johns Counties). As of the latest US Drought Monitor update (August 30th), approximately 86% of Florida was drought free, and 14% was affected by D0 conditions. Lake Okeechobee water levels at the end of the month were at 14.73 feet, which is above average for this time of the year.

Appendix 1: Additional August departures from normal data for Florida locations.

Appendix 2: Select daily maximum and minimum temperature records (° F) broken during August (compiled from NOAA, NWS).  

Prepared by Lydia Stefanova, Daniel J. Brouillette, and David F. Zierden.
Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

Average temperatures for September in Florida were above normal. TThe average temperatures in September 2016 were above normal across the state with few isolated exceptions. Average temperatures departure from normal ranged from -0.2˚F in Fort Lauderdale to +3.7˚F in Tallahassee (Table 1 and Appendix 1). September 2016 was the warmest on record in Tampa, 2nd warmest in Tallahassee and West Palm Beach, 6th warmest in Pensacola, 10th warmest in Miami. Multiple maximum and minimum temperature records were tied or broken across the state in September (Appendix 2).

Table 1: September average temperatures and departures from normal (˚F) for selected cities.

Rainfall totals in September were varied across the state. Rainfall totals were above normal for portions of the state affected by TS/Hurricane Hermine in the first two days of the month, and below normal for most of the remaining area. Two-day storm totals in excess of 9’’ were measured by several gauges in Pinellas County. Major reporting stations registered departures from normal ranging from -3.83” (Jacksonville) to +6.53” (Melbourne) (Table 2 and Appendix 1), although localized parts of the state saw rainfall totals that were as much as 5” below normal to over 8” above normal (Figure 1). At major reporting stations, there were a few number of 24-hour precipitation records broken for the month (Table 3).

Table 2: September precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for select cities.

Table 3: Select daily rainfall records (inches) broken during September (compiled from NOAA, NWS).

Figure 1: A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for September is given in the figure below (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

ENSO-Neutral Conditions are Present in the Pacific.

The ENSO alert status is currently set to Not Active. Sea surface temperatures in the east-central and equatorial Pacific are near or below average. NOAA CPC estimates that continuing ENSO-neutral conditions are slightly favored (55-60% chance) for the fall and winter of 2016-17.

Hazardous Weather Events in September.

There were 359 reports of hazardous weather events logged in Florida in September by the Southeast Regional Climate Center (http://sercc.com/lsr; see Table 4 for a breakdown by event type). Nearly half of these came from just two days, September 1-2, during the approach and passage of Hurricane Hermine. Hurricane Hermine made landfall around 1:30 AM EDT on 2 September 2016, near Saint Marks, Wakulla County, in the Big Bend region. Its greatest impact away from the coast was damaging wind gusts. Winds were strong near, and especially off, the western coast from the Tampa Bay region northward through the Nature Coast and the north-central part of the peninsula and into the Big Bend region. Damage from these wind gusts, though seen in much of the Big Bend, was most evident in Tallahassee, the largest population center affected by Hermine at its peak strength. Numerous downed trees caused several injuries and damage to several houses and numerous power lines. The resulting power outages left over 300, 000 customers without power for several days. Rainfall from Hermine was particularly heavy in coastal areas of the Tampa Bay region, where minor to moderate flash flooding was reported. Three brief tornadoes were reported in rural Taylor County on the 1st  without significant associated damage. A weak tornado on the same day briefly touched down in Orange County causing some damage to homes and structures. Initial estimates indicate that insured losses in Florida from Hermine were on the order of $80 million.

Table 4: Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of September (Compiled from Southeast Regional Climate Center.)

Agriculture Related Impacts. 

Prior to the beginning of September, topsoil moisture levels were mainly (62%) adequate, with some (20%) surplus and some (16%) short values present. Following the passage of Hermine, soil moisture levels shifted to mostly adequate (60%) and (30%) surplus. By the end of the month 70% of topsoils were reported at adequate levels, and 18% with surplus, and 12% short. Land preparation and planting has been underway for fall vegetables. Some of the early vegetable plantings have suffered from disease issues because of overly wet soil conditions in Charlotte, Collier, Glades, and Hendry Counties. Cattle and pasture conditions are mostly good, and pasture conditions are seasonally declining across the state. Peanut harvesting has begun in Lafayette, Dixie, and Escambia counties, although wet fields caused some crop damage and harvest delays and increased disease pressure in Dixie and Levy Counties. Some damage from wind and excess moisture following the hurricane has been reported in cotton and sorghum fields in Jefferson County and hay fields in Pasco County. Sugarcane is reported to be in good condition, although some growers in Collier, Glades and Hendry counties had to run pumps to remove excess water from the fields. Most of the citrus growing region, with the exception of portions of Orange, Seminole, Brevard and Volusia has been drought free for most of the month. Some groves required irrigation several times per week to maintain necessary soil moistures. Harvest has begun for small amounts of citrus varieties and is expected to continue as fruits continue to ripen.

Drought Related Impacts. 

According to the US Drought Monitor, at the end of August 86% of the state was drought-free, with the remaining 14% (including Nassau, Duval, Clay, Saint Johns, Putnam, Flagler, Volusia, Brevard, and portions of Madison, Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, Indian River and Okeechobee Counties) experiencing abnormally dry (D0) conditions. In the first week of September, rains from Hermine ameliorated some of the D0 conditions, leaving only 6% of the state (portions of Nassau, Duval, Saint Johns, Putnam, Seminole, Orange and Brevard Counties, as well as most of Volusia County) in D0. In the week that followed, some additional D0 conditions developed in the northern portion of Okaloosa and Walton Counties, and in the northeast of Jackson County. This pattern persisted until the last week of the month. As of the latest US Drought Monitor report (September 27th), 93% of the state was drought free, and 7% - abnormally dry.  As of October 1, the water level in Lake Okeechobee was at 15.77’, which is 0.86’ higher than average for this time of the year.

Appendix 1: Additional September departures from normal data for Florida locations.

Appendix 2: Select daily maximum and minimum temperature records (° F) broken during September (compiled from NOAA, NWS).