Prepared by Daniel J. Brouillette
Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

Mean temperatures in August were mainly near to slightly above normal across the state, except in a portion of the north-central part of the peninsula, where they were considerably above normal. The anomalies in monthly mean temperature were mix of positive and negative across the state but near to slightly above normal, overall, ranging from as positive as +2.6˚F at Gainesville and Melbourne in the north-central part of the state to as negative as -0.7˚F at Fort Myers and Miami in the coastal southern sections (Table 1 and Appendix 1).  Continuing a long-term trend, anomalies in monthly mean minimum temperature were more positive than anomalies in monthly mean maximum temperatures.  August 2018 was the second warmest at Melbourne, sixth warmest at Gainesville, and seventh warmest at Orlando.  Several high temperature records and one low temperature record were tied or broken across the state (Appendix 2). 

Table 1. August average temperatures and departures from normal (˚F) for selected cities.

Rainfall totals in August were much above normal over most of the panhandle, near to above normal in the western one-third of the peninsula, and below normal in many areas of the eastern peninsula and Keys, with considerable local variability characteristic of the summer months in Florida (Figure 1).  Station anomalies ranged from -5.51” at Melbourne to +6.83” at Tampa (Table 2 and Appendix 1) (Figure 1). A few 24-hour precipitation records broken for the month (Table 3).

Table 2. August precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Table 3. Select daily rainfall records (inches) broken during August. (Compiled from NOAA, NWS)

Figure 1. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for May is given in the figure below (courtesy of NOAA, NWS). 

ENSO-neutral conditions are present in the Pacific, with El Niño favored to develop.

Based on current data and forecast models, forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) have issued an El Niño Watch.  ENSO-neutral conditions currently are present, with sea-surface temperatures (SST) near to above average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The chance of El Niño development during the climatological boreal autumn (from now through the end of November) is rated at near 60% and near 70% during the climatological boreal winter (December-January-February).  The CPC seasonal outlook favors above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation through September 2018.  For the climatological autumn as a whole (through the end of November), there is equal probability of below-, near-, and above-normal temperatures and above-normal rainfall in Florida.

Hazardous Weather Events in August.

According the Local Storm Reports (LSRs) issued by the local National Weather Service (NWS) offices serving Florida, 208 instances of hazardous weather were reported across the state in August 2018. 

Table 4. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of August. (Compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet.)

Drought-Related Impacts

At the end of August, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, all of Florida was drought free, continuing conditions that have been present since the late spring.  Western Escambia County, accounting for 0.26% of the state’s land area, had abnormally dry conditions in the second half of the month, owing to rainfall deficits over the last 30 to 60 days. 

As of 5 September, the Lake Okeechobee water level was at 14.65 ft. above sea level, which is above average for this time of the year.

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

At the beginning of September, topsoil-moisture levels were at mainly adequate although about one-quarter of the state had surplus topsoil-moisture levels, mainly on the panhandle, and about two percent was short on topsoil moisture.

A major theme through the month has been the continuation of very wet soil conditions on the panhandle, which has hindered the cutting of hay and the harvest of peanuts at times.  Flooded low-lying areas in the St. Johns River valley negatively impacted cattle pasture lands.  Summer crops, including avocado, bitter melon, boniato, malanga, mango, and okra, were harvested; good conditions generally persisted for citrus, allowing spray schedules to be followed and grove maintenance performed.  The preparation of land for fall vegetable cultivation was managed as conditions allowed and planting started. 

Appendix 1
Additional May Departures from Normal Data for Florida Locations

Appendix 2
Select daily maximum and minimum temperature records (^oF) tied or broken during May.
(Compiled from NOAA, NWS)

*This value ties the all-time highest minimum temperature ever recorded at Melbourne (records back to 1937), last set on 14 July 2017. 

Prepared by Daniel J. Brouillette
Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

Mean temperatures in October were much above normal statewide (Table 1 and Appendix 1). October 2018 was the warmest on record at Tampa and Key West (the second consecutive at both locations), as well as other less major stations, and in the top five warmest on record at several other stations. Several high temperature records were tied or broken across the state (Appendix 2).

Table 1. October average temperatures and departures from normal (˚F) for selected cities.

Rainfall totals in October were below normal except in the central and eastern panhandle (Figure 1). Rainfall was somewhat above normal in the central and eastern panhandle owing to Hurricane Michael on the 10th of the month. 24-hour precipitation records were broken for the month (Table 3).

Table 2. October precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Table 3. Select daily rainfall records (inches) broken during October. (Compiled from NOAA, NWS)

Figure 1. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for October is given in the figure below (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

ENSO-neutral conditions are present in the Pacific, with El Niño favored to develop.

Based on current data and forecast models, forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) continue with an El Niño Watch. ENSO-neutral conditions currently are present, with sea-surface temperatures (SST) above average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño development is favored by the end of the climatological boreal autumn (from now through the end of November), and the chance of development is 70-75% during the climatological boreal winter (December-January-February). The CPC seasonal outlook favors above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation statewide through November 2018.

Hazardous Weather Events in October.

According the Local Storm Reports (LSRs) issued by the local National Weather Service (NWS) offices serving Florida, nnn instances of hazardous weather were reported across the state in October 2018. Of special interest was Hurricane Michael, which made landfall on the 10th as a high-end Category 4 storm near Mexico Beach and was the third-strongest storm ever to landfall on the United States in terms of minimum central pressure.

Table 4. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of October. (Compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet.)

Drought-Related Impacts

At the end of October, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, abnormally dry conditions were present in a large area from the Space Coast, south along the coast to near Miami and southwest from there, as well as in northeast Florida in the Jacksonville area.

As of 5 November, the Lake Okeechobee water level was at 13.65 ft. above sea level, which is near average for this time of the year.

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

At the end of October, topsoil-moisture levels were at surplus or adequate over two-thirds of the state, with the remaining third very short or short. Citrus harvest got underway this month; the early harvest has looked good, according to reports, and groves and trees also look to be in good condition. By the end of the month, the irrigation of crop vegetables was required because of dry conditions developing. Cattle conditions remained good as of the end of the month. Hurricane Michael decimated the cotton crop, especially those plants that were already defoliated prior to the storm, with 10-90% crop loss depending on the county. Peanuts on the panhandle suffered significant losses; late-season yields were halved.

At the end of the month, two-thirds of the state had topsoil that were adequate or excess in terms of moisture, with the balance of the state short or very short.

Appendix 1
Additional September Departures from Normal Data for Florida Locations

Appendix 2
Select daily maximum and minimum temperature records (^oF) tied or broken during September.
(Compiled from NOAA, NWS)

Prepared by Daniel J. Brouillette
Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

Mean temperatures in November ranged from much above normal on the Keys to somewhat above normal on the peninsula to somewhat below normal on the panhandle (Table 1 and Appendix 1). It was the second-warmest November at Key West. Several high temperature records were tied or broken across the state (Appendix 2).

Table 1. November average temperatures and departures from normal (˚F) for selected cities.

Rainfall totals in November were above normal in north and parts of central Florida and near to below normal south of those areas (Figure 1). (Table 3).

Table 2. November precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Table 3. Select daily rainfall records (inches) broken during November. (Compiled from NOAA, NWS)

Figure 1. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for November is given in the figure below (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

ENSO-neutral conditions are present in the Pacific, with El Niño to develop.

Based on current data and forecast models, forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) continue with an El Niño Watch. ENSO-neutral conditions currently are present, with sea-surface temperatures (SST) above average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño is expected to develop, continuing through boreal winter (~80% chance) and possibly into the boreal spring (55-60% chance). The CPC seasonal outlook favors above-normal temperatures statewide and above-normal rainfall statewide, especially on the panhandle, in December 2018.

Hazardous Weather Events in November.

According the Local Storm Reports (LSRs) issued by the local National Weather Service (NWS) offices serving Florida, 92 instances of hazardous weather were reported across the state in November 2018.

Table 4. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of November. (Compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet.)

Drought-Related Impacts

At the end of November, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, abnormally dry conditions were present over much of the eastern half of the peninsula, with moderate-drought conditions found in the far northeast, along the central Atlantic coast, and on the west side of Lake Okeechobee. However, it is noted that November begins the dry season on the peninsula.

As of 3 December, the Lake Okeechobee water level was at 13.03 ft. above sea level, which is a bit below average for this time of the year.

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

At the end of November, top-soil moisture was adequate over half the state, short or very short over about one-third, and at surplus over the balance. The first frost or freeze had occurred during the month as far south as north-central Florida. Citrus harvest was underway, but progress was behind what is was last year at this time. Pasture quality was seeing decline late in the month in the north because of cool, wet conditions and in the south because of drier conditions. Nonetheless, cattle condition remained good. Frequent rain in the panhandle hindered the cotton harvest. Most peanuts have been harvested, but some remained in Jackson and Holmes counties at the end of the month.

Appendix 1
Additional November Departures from Normal Data for Florida Locations

Appendix 2
Select daily maximum and minimum temperature records (^oF) tied or broken during November.
(Compiled from NOAA, NWS)

*This value ties the all-time highest minimum temperature ever recorded at Key West for the month of November (records back to 1872); the last occurrence was on 9 November 2015.

Prepared by Melissa Griffin and David F. Zierden.
Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

Average temperatures were below normal across the state in February. The departures for average temperatures in February 2015 were below normal across the entire state, with departures ranging from -1.8˚F in Miami to -5.0˚F at Jacksonville. (Table 1 and Appendix 1). Most stations in the Panhandle, Big Bend and North Florida recorded at least one day with a minimum temperature below freezing (32˚F) during February, and a few locations as far south as La Belle, FL reported a day below freezing on the 20th. February 2015 was the 9th coldest on record in Gainesville. Multiple temperature records were tied or broken across the state in January (Appendix 2).

Table 1: February average temperatures and departures from normal (˚F) for selected cities.

Rainfall totals were varied across the state in February. Most of the western Panhandle and the northern Peninsula saw below normal rainfall during February, while portions of the Big Bend, Central Florida and the East Coast had rainfall totals above normal (Figure 1). Departures from normal roughly ranged from -1.18” to 3.74” (Table 2 and Appendix 1), though localized parts of state saw rainfall totals that were as much as 4.00” below normal to over 5.00” above normal (Figure 1). February 2015 was the 7th wettest on record in Tampa and Orlando, the 9th wettest for Plant City and the 10th wettest in Hialeah. A significant rain event took place in the Broward and Dade counties on the 28th, where some locations along the coast picked up over 5.00” of rain. There were multiple 24-hour precipitation records broken for the month (Table 3).

Table 2: February precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Table 3: Select daily rainfall records (inches) broken during February. (Compiled from NOAA, NWS)

Figure 1: A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for February is given in the figure below (courtesy of NOAA, NWS)

ENSO-Neutral Conditions Continue in the Pacific.
Based on current data and forecast models, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) continues to have an El Niño Watch in place. Positive sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies have been recorded across the western and central Pacific Ocean, while near average SSTs are evident in the eastern Pacific. There is still a 50% chance of an El Niño event developing within the late winter/early spring. After the Northern Hemisphere winter, a return to ENSO-Neutral conditions is favored. CPC predicts normal temperatures and above normal precipitation across the state through May 2015.

Hazardous Weather Events in February.
There were a total of 86 severe weather reports made in Florida during February. On the 5th, a tornado made two touchdowns in the Boca Raton area. The first touchdown was rated as an EF-1, and the second was rated as an EF-0. Several trees were uprooted or snapped in half, and a home sustained damage from a projectile tree limb that punctured its roof. High winds, up to 60 mph, and additional storm damage were reported on the same day in Boynton Beach, Delray Beach, and along the Florida Keys. The tidal gauges near Fernandina Beach and Mayport recorded astronomical low tides (-6.13 and -4.92 ft.) on the 19th, due to a ‘blow-out’ after the passage of a strong cold front on the morning of the 19th. The same cold front caused high winds, up to 50 mph, along many locations in the Keys. A developing low-pressure system and associated warm front caused severe weather in the Big Bend during the 25th and 26th. Multiple reports of strong winds, downed trees and power lines, and damage to structures were reported from locations in and around Panama City Beach, Tallahassee, Lake City, Jacksonville, Gainesville, and Tampa. At the end of the month, a stationary front over South Florida brought heavy rains and flooding from Port St. Lucie to Miami, with a few places reporting nearly 10” of rain. There were reports of dime and pea-sized hail in Kissimmee and at the FAU Campus on the 28th.

Table 4: Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of February. (Compiled from Southeast Regional Climate Center.)

Agricultural and other climate related impacts.
At the beginning of February, soil moisture continued to be mostly adequate in the Panhandle and northern Florida from rains in January. Blueberry bushes showed signs of early blooming in Marion County, and harvesting of fruits and winter vegetables continued across the state. Pasture and cattle conditions in South Florida were in decline and producers were providing supplemental feed as necessary. Fieldwork and soil preparation for the spring plantings continued in the Panhandle. Excess water from early February rains was being pumped out of fields in locations across central Florida, especially in Brevard County. Some pastures were in poor conditions due to standing water, and farmers in Orange and Seminole counties were having problems locating hay for their cattle. Toward the middle of the month, citrus growers were noticing some bloom, mostly on early variety fruit, and new growth was seen on well-maintained trees. Growth of cool-season forage crops slowed due to cold weather and frost across northern Florida and parts of the Peninsula. Sub-freezing temperatures caused damage to the tops of some vegetables plants with most extensive damage was to corn and bean and blueberries were damaged by the frost. The windy weather that preceded the freeze battered sensitive vegetable crops, causing minimal damage. Most of the citrus processing plants were up and running, though most of the plants plan on finishing early and midseason oranges by the end of February.

February started off with nearly 14% of the state reporting abnormally dry (D0) conditions, with the main concentration of the dryness located in the western Panhandle and southern Florida. Widespread rainfall impacted the state on the 5th and 6th of February, but the dry start to the month exacerbated conditions in the southern part of the state, and D0 was added to all of Broward and Collier counties and extended along coastal Indian River and St. Lucie counties. Another storm system brought rain to the Panhandle on the 17th and 18th, however near the end of the month, moderate drought (D1) conditions were introduced in portions of Miami-Dade and Monroe counties, especially in the Everglades National Park. The lack of rainfall throughout the month caused the expansion of existing D1 in Escambia County into all of Santa Rosa and western portions Okaloosa counties in the Panhandle. At the end of the month, the water level in Lake Okeechobee had dropped to under 15 ft., mainly due to regulatory releases. Heavy rains in portions of Alabama and Georgia caused rivers in northern Florida to rise, with some minor flooding along the Choctawhatchee, Apalachicola, Ochlockonee, and Withlacoochee.

Appendix 1: Additional February Departures from Normal Data for Florida Locations

 Appendix 2: Select daily maximum and minimum temperature records (o F) tied or broken during February (Compiled from NOAA, NWS)