The Florida Climate Center serves as the primary resource for climate data, information, and services in the state of Florida.
The Florida Climate Center achieves its mission by providing climate monitoring, research, and expertise to be applied by the people, institutions, and businesses of Florida and the surrounding region.
We provide direct service by fulfilling requests for climate and weather data and information in a variety of formats.
We perform research that advances the understanding of the climate variability and changes of Florida and the surrounding region.
We provide outreach in presentations and at events aimed at a variety of groups, interests, and ages.
Prepared by Lydia Stefanova, Daniel J. Brouillette, and David F. Zierden.
Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL
Average temperatures in September were above normal for most of the state. The departures from average temperatures in September 2017 were above normal across most of the state, ranging from -0.1˚F in Orlando to +1.9˚F in Miami (Table 1 and Appendix 1). September 2017 was the warmest on record for Miami (for a third month in a row), 2nd warmest for Tampa and West Palm Beach, 5th for Fort Myers, and 11th for Key West. Several temperature records were tied or broken across the state (Appendix 2).
Table 1: September average temperatures and departures from normal (˚F) for selected cities.
Rainfall totals in September were mixed across the state. Rainfall totals in September 2017 were below normal in most parts of the Panhandle and above normal in the majority of peninsular Florida and the Florida Keys (Figure 1). Departures from normal ranged from -1.92” in St. Petersburg to +8.03” in Orlando (Table 2 and Appendix 1), although localized parts of the state saw rainfall totals that were as much as 15” or more above normal (Figure 1). Overall, September 2017 was the 3rd wettest on record for Gainesville, and 4th wettest for Orlando. Several 24-hour precipitation records broken for the month (Table 3). In addition, Gainesville reported a record 2-day rainfall total of 12.40” from Hurricane Irma between the 10th and 11th, which broke the old records of 11.81” from Hurricane Four in 1894 and 10.42” from Tropical Storm Debby in 2012.
Table 2: September precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for select cities.
Table 3: Select daily rainfall records (inches) broken during September. (Compiled from NOAA, NWS).
Figure 1: A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for September is given in the figure below (courtesy of NOAA, NWS)
ENSO-Neutral Conditions are Present in the Pacific.
Based on current data and forecast models, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) the ENSO alert system status is set to La Niña Watch. ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present, with sea surface temperatures (SST) near- to below-average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Forecast models increasingly favor the development of La Niña conditions during the fall and winter of 2017-2018. Taking into account the ENSO forecast and long-term trends, the CPC seasonal outlook favors above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for Florida through November 2017.
Hazardous Weather Events in September.
There were a total of 648 hazardous weather events recorded in the National Weather Service Local Storm Reports database for September 2017 (see Table 4 for breakdown by type).
The overwhelming majority of these reports (about 85%) were associated with the approach and passage of Hurricane Irma, between September 9th and 11th. Major Hurricane Irma made three separate landfalls on Florida. The first occurred at Cudjoe Key (Monroe County in the lower Keys), on 10 September at 9:10 AM EDT, with 130 mph maximum sustained winds (Category 4). This landfall was the first of a major hurricane on Florida since Hurricane Wilma made landfall at Cape Romano (Collier County) on 24 October 2005. The second Irma landfall was later that same day at 3:35 PM EDT at Marco Island (Collier County), with 115 mph maximum sustained winds (Category 3). The third was one-half hour later at Naples, with 115 mph maximum sustained winds. Irma’s center then moved inland about 25 miles, weakening to Category 2 strength, before moving in a generally north-northwest direction. As it passed just east of Tampa on the night of the 10th, the storm maintained Category 1 strength. By the time the center reached the Big Bend region around dawn on the 11th, Irma had weakened to tropical-storm strength. By the afternoon of the 11th, the center had exited the state into Georgia. Commensurate with its strength, Irma produced considerable property damage; it is still much too early to provide an estimate of the monetary value of the damage. This damage was seen throughout most of the peninsula but was severe in areas in the southwest and devastating in portions of the Keys. At the peak of the storm, 60 percent of electric power customers statewide had no service. Much of the damage resulted from strong winds. Hurricane-force wind gusts were registered as far north as the First Coast. The highest wind gust that was recorded in the state was 142 mph at Naples Airport on the 10th. However, it should be noted that station-level peak wind-gust readings are often missed during storms of this magnitude because of instrument failure. Damage also resulted from storm-surge flooding along the Keys and the eastern coast. In fact, storm surge reached a record level at Jacksonville, eclipsing the level seen during Hurricane Dora in 1964. By contrast, a large expanse of negative storm surge was seen along much of the western coast. Rainfall was seen throughout all the state except the extreme western panhandle. The greatest rainfall totals, 15-25”, were observed in the extreme south of the peninsula and in the upper and middle Keys. Throughout the remainder of the peninsula, 11-15” of rain were common along and east of the path of the storm center. Totals tapered gradually with westward distance from that path. Major to record flooding occurred on many streams, ostensibly because of the storm’s wide expanse. Seventeen tornadoes have been confirmed in Florida on account of Irma. All of these occurred east of the center path and were most numerous from the middle of the peninsula northward. At this time, it is believed that seventy-two persons perished in Florida as a result of Irma, mainly by drowning.
Table 4: Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of September (Compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet.)
Drought-Related Impacts.
At the end of August, a small area of abnormally dry (D0) conditions had appeared over the northern portions of Gadsden and Leon Counties, affecting about half of a percent of the state’s area. By the first week of September the D0 conditions were eliminated and the entire state became drought-free, and remained drought-free for the rest of the month.
At the end of the month, Lake Okeechobee water levels were at 16.43 ft., which is well above average for this time of the year. The US Army Corps of Engineers, which is responsible for managing of Lake Okeechobee flows, has been doing regular dam safety inspections and releasing as much water as possible while trying to ensure there is no flooding downstream. These needed discharges from the lake have resulted in a large plume of turbid nutrient-rich fresh water entering the Gulf and are causing some concern about hypoxia and potential for algal blooms.
Agriculture-Related Impacts.
Throughout the month soil moisture were at mostly adequate to surplus levels, with the proportion of surplus values increasing following the passage of Irma.
Hurricane Irma passed on the western side of the citrus growing area, bringing heavy winds and excessive precipitation to the entire region. Normal grove operations were suspended for a number of days in the aftermath, as groves and access roads were flooded or washed out. Growers were pumping standing water out of groves, attempting to get canals and ditches back to normal levels, repairing potholes, and surveying grove and fruit damage.
Fall vegetable growers delayed planting in advance of Irma. In fields that had already been planted, significant losses were reported in Bradford, Collier, Glades, Hendry, Hillsborough, Lee, and Saint Lucie Counties. Losses affected plantings of strawberries, peppers, okra, cabbage, collards and peas, as well as laid plastic. In the following weeks, growers were pumping water out of flooded areas, laying new plastic and replanting crops that were destroyed.
Pasture and cattle conditions across the state have been mostly in good condition, although many pastures were flooded. Herds were reported very thin in Brevard and Indian River Counties. Some milk losses were reported in Lafayette County due to power outages. A large herd in St. Lucie County was reported standing in knee-deep water, and had to be moved to higher ground. In multiple counties there is still standing water reported in low-lying pastures, and mosquito populations have increased significantly.
Peanut and hay producers stepped up harvesting as much as possible in the few days ahead of the hurricane. Significant damage to cotton has been reported in Jackson, Holmes, Lafayette, and Madison Counties. Damage to peanuts was reported in Dixie, Gilchrist, Jackson and Levy Counties, and to corn – in Columbia County. Extended delays in peanut harvest due to excess moisture are being reported in Dixie, Gilchrist, Holmes, Jackson, Lafayette, and Levy Counties. Almost all sugarcane was flooded and blown down in Glades, Hendry and Palm Beach Counties, but is beginning to stand up.
Appendix 1: Additional September departures from normal data for Florida locations.
Appendix 2: Select daily maximum and minimum temperature records (° F) broken during September (compiled from NOAA, NWS).
Prepared by Lydia Stefanova, Daniel J. Brouillette, and David F. Zierden.
Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL
Average temperatures in October were above normal for most of the state. The departures from average temperatures in October 2017 were above normal across most of the state, ranging from -1.0˚F in Fort Lauderdale to 3.9˚F in Pensacola (Table 1 and Appendix 1). Despite the above-normal average temperatures, a strong cold front on the 28th and 29th of the month brought significantly lower temperatures, with overnight lows in some locations in the panhandle as well as some interior locations in the northern part of the peninsula dipping into the mid-30s. October 2017 was the 5th warmest on record in Miami, and 8th warmest in Tampa. A number of temperature records were tied or broken across the state (Appendix 2).
Table 1: October average temperatures and departures from normal (˚F) for selected cities.
Rainfall totals in October were mixed across the state. Rainfall totals in October 2017 were above normal in the eastern part of the Florida Peninsula and in the extreme western part of the Panhandle, and below normal in the remainder of the state (Figure 1). Departures from normal roughly ranged from -1.31” in Gainesville to 8.38” in Melbourne (Table 2 and Appendix 1), though localized parts of the state saw rainfall totals that were as much as 3.00” below normal to more than 8.00” above normal (Figure 1). Significant rainfall amounts in South Florida were associated with tropical storm Philippe near the end of the month, with localized daily totals exceeding 8 inches reported in several locations in Palm Beach County. A small number of 24-hour precipitation records broken for the month (Table 3).
Table 2: October precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for select cities.
Table 3: Select daily rainfall records (inches) broken during October. (Compiled from NOAA, NWS).
Figure 1: A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for October is given in the figure below (courtesy of NOAA, NWS)
ENSO-Neutral Conditions are Present in the Pacific.
Based on current data and forecast models, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) the ENSO alert system status is set to La Niña Watch. ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present, with sea surface temperatures (SST) near- to below-average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Forecast models favor the development of La Niña conditions during the fall and winter of 2017-2018. Taking into account the ENSO forecast and long-term trends, the CPC seasonal outlook favors above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for Florida through January 2018.
Hazardous Weather Events in October.
There were a total of 256 hazardous weather reports issued in Florida in October 2017. Most of these were reports of high winds, mainly in South Florida between the 3rd and 5th of the month, and between the 28th and 29th. High tides and coastal flooding were observed between the 1st and 7th of the month in Brevard, Broward, Collier, Duval, Flagler, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Palm Beach, Pinellas, and St. Johns Counties. On October 8, as tropical storm Nate made landfall near Biloxi, MS, tropical storm winds and damage to trees and powerlines were reported in Bay, Escambia, Holmes, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Walton, and Washington Counties. Storm surge and coastal flooding on that day were seen in Escambia, Gulf, Santa Rosa, and Walton Counties. Tropical storm winds were also reported on October 29th From Key Largo and Miami-Dade. There were four tornadoes observed on that day, one in Miami-Dade and three in Palm Beach County, with some reports of damage to roofs, awnings, and mobile homes.
Table 4: Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of October (Compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet.)
Drought-Related Impacts.
The state has remained drought-free since the previous month. At the end of the month, Lake Okeechobee water levels were very high, at 17.01 ft., requiring continuing heavy discharges. As the end of October typically marks the beginning of the dry season, it is expected that water levels in the lake will not peak further.
Agriculture-Related Impacts.
Throughout the month topsoil moisture levels were at mainly adequate to surplus, although a few short values were also reported.
The citrus growing area started the month with continued hurricane cleanup and repairs, and was gradually resuming normal grove operations. Early harvest of oranges, tangerines, and grapefruit for the fresh market has begun. Canals and ditches have sufficient water for irrigation, and irrigation was being run in areas with below-average rainfall. Cattle and started the month in mostly good to fair condition, and have improved as the month went on. Excess moisture has been a problem for fields in the southern portion of the state. With some pastures underwater for a prolonged duration, some producers in Okeechobee County have begun feeding supplements early. Winter pastures are being planted in Jackson County. Hay cutting was reported in Dixie, Jackson, Osceola and Walton Counties. Heavy rains temporarily delayed sugarcane harvest in Glades, Hendry, and Palm Beach Counties, but the harvest was resumed in the drier parts. Wet conditions have prevented hay cutting in Volusia County, raising concern of potential shortages if conditions fail to improve. Peanut yield and quality has been negatively impacted in Lafayette County by low moisture conditions, and in Dixie, Jackson, Gilchrist, Holmes, Suwannee and Washington Counties by excess moisture Jackson County is reporting low cotton yields and cotton damage from heavy wind and rain was reported in Washington County.
Appendix 1: Additional October departures from normal data for Florida locations.
Appendix 2: Select daily maximum and minimum temperature records (° F) broken during October (compiled from NOAA, NWS).
Prepared by Lydia Stefanova, Daniel J. Brouillette, and David F. Zierden.
Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL
Average temperatures in November were above normal for most of the state. The departures from average temperatures in November 2017 were above normal for most of the state, ranging from 0˚F in Fort Lauderdale to +4.1˚F in Melbourne (Table 1 and Appendix 1). November 2017 was the warmest on record in Jacksonville, 3rd warmest in Miami and Orlando, 7th warmest in Fort Myers, and 9th warmest in Tampa. The fall season (September through November) for Miami tied the warmest average temperature record set back in 1986. The average fall (September through November) season temperatures in Miami were 81.0F, tying the record set back in 1986. (Official records at Miami have been kept since 1895.) A few high temperature records were tied across the state for the month (Appendix 2).
Table 1: November average temperatures and departures from normal (˚F) for selected cities.
Rainfall totals in November were mixed across the state. Rainfall totals in November 2017 were below normal for the Panhandle and most of Peninsular Florida (Figure 1), although some areas in the northern portion of the Peninsula and along the Atlantic coast were above normal. Departures from normal roughly ranged from -4.65” in Pensacola to +2.52” in Fort Lauderdale (Table 2 and Appendix 1), although localized parts of the state saw rainfall totals that were 5.00” or more below normal to 8.00” or more above normal (Figure 1). November 2017 was the driest on record for Pensacola and 10th driest for Orlando and Tampa. Melbourne had the wettest fall season on record, with 36.97’’ of total rainfall measured at the Melbourne international airport, beating the previous record of 32.95’’ set in 1999. Melbourne’s fall season rainfall was a whopping 21.39’’ above normal. (Official records at Melbourne have been kept since 1937.) A few 24-hour precipitation records were broken across the state for the month (Table 3).
Table 2: November precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for select cities.
Table 3: Select daily rainfall records (inches) broken during November. (Compiled from NOAA, NWS).
Figure 1: A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for November is given in the figure below (courtesy of NOAA, NWS)
La Niña Conditions are Present in the Pacific.
Based on current data and forecast models, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) the ENSO alert system status is set to La Niña Advisory. La Niña conditions are currently present, with sea surface temperatures below-average across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Forecast models predict that La Niña conditions will continue at least through the winter of 2017-2018. Taking into account the ENSO forecast and long-term trends, the CPC seasonal outlook favors above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for Florida through February 2018.
Hazardous Weather Events in November.
November 2017 was relatively quiet, with only 29 hazardous weather events recorded by the National Weather Service Local Storms Report Database for the entire month across the state (see Table 4 for breakdown by event type). Minor street flooding due to high astronomical tides was seen on the 5th of the month in Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach Counties. Rainfall amounts (exceeding 3-4’’ in 24 hours) were reported in Martin County on the 13th. Several instances of marine thunderstorm wind gusts of 40-45 mph were reported in Walton, Bay and Franklin County on the 19th. A possible tornado was observed in Collier County on the 22nd. Some heavy rains associated with a frontal passage were reported in Brevard and Volusia Counties on the 23rd, along with isolated reports of strong winds and storm damage. Dense fog was reported on the last day of the month in parts of Leon and Walton Counties.
Table 4: Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of November (Compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet.)
Drought-Related Impacts.
At the end of October the entire state was drought-free. As the month progressed, abnormally dry (D0) to moderate drought (D1) conditions gradually developed over the Panhandle, from Escambia County on the west to Baker, Union, Alachua, and Levy County on the east. As of the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Report, issued on the 28th, about 22% of the state is experiencing D0 conditions, and about 12% of the state (including Bay, Calhoun, Gadsden, Gulf, Holmes, Jackson, Franklin, Liberty, Washington, and parts of Leon, Walton, Wakulla Counties) is experiencing D1 conditions. Based on census data, roughly 450,000 Florida citizens are currently impacted by drought.
At the end of the month, Lake Okeechobee water levels were at 16.08 ft., which is above normal for this time of the year. The high Lake elevations since hurricane Irma in September have necessitated continuing discharge of large volumes of water into the St. Lucie River, which has resulted in a large plume of low-salinity turbid nutrient-rich water extending into the Gulf. These discharges are expected to be reduced soon, as the dry season progresses and lake levels continue to go down.
Figure 2: Latest U. S. Drought Monitor Map for Florida (from http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/)
Agriculture-Related Impacts.
At the end of October, topsoil moisture levels across the state were at predominantly adequate (52%) to surplus (37%) levels, although some short values (11%) were also observed. As the month progressed and abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions settled in over the Florida Peninsula, the proportion of surplus values decreased, and that of short values increased somewhat.
The citrus growing area has remained drought-free. Post-hurricane cleanup finally drew to a close for even the most damaged areas, and caretakers have resumed normal grove maintenance. Harvesting for the fresh market is underway for a number of orange, grapefruit and tangerine varieties.
Cattle across the state were in mostly good condition. Pasture quality across the state was mostly good to fair, and seasonally declining with cooler temperature and drier conditions. Supplemental feed is expected to be needed soon in Hernando and Sumter Counties. Winter pasture planting has been reported in Bradford, Jackson, Lafayette, Osceola, and Walton Counties.
Peanut harvesting has been wrapped up for the season, and cotton harvesting is about 75% completed. The peanut yield and quality was reported better than expected in Jackson County, but other counties have suffered some losses due to bad weather conditions in the past few months. Hay harvesting has been reported in Bradford, Gilchrist, Jackson, Okeechobee, Osceola, Polk, Suwannee, Volusia, and Taylor Counties. Producers in Taylor County have been reportedly cutting as much hay as possible due to a supply shortage. Sugarcane planting and harvesting has been ongoing in Glades, Hendry and Palm Beach Counties.
Appendix 1: Additional November departures from normal data for Florida locations.
Appendix 2: Select daily maximum and minimum temperature records (° F) broken during November (compiled from NOAA, NWS).
Prepared by Lydia Stefanova, Daniel J. Brouillette, and David F. Zierden.
Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL
Average temperatures in December were generally above normal across the state. The departures from average temperatures in December 2017 were above normal across the entire state, ranging from -0.8˚F in Fort Lauderdale to +4.2˚F in Tampa (Table 1 and Appendix 1). Below-freezing temperatures were reported on one or more nights at most stations in the panhandle as well as some interior locations in the northern part of the peninsula. A handful of daily temperature records were tied or broken across the state (Appendix 2). Amongst stations with records going back over 100 years, 2017 was the warmest year on record in Pensacola (138 years in record), Tampa (127 years in record), and Ocala (111 years in record). It was the 2nd warmest for Miami (117 years in record), 3rd warmest year on record for Key West (143 years in record), Fort Myers (114 years in record), 5th for West Palm Beach (117 years in record), 6th warmest for Jacksonville (146 years in record), and 7th for Tallahassee (115 years in record).
Table 1: December average temperatures and departures from normal (˚F) for selected cities.
Rainfall totals in December were generally below normal across the state. Rainfall totals in December 2017 were below everywhere in most of the state (Figure 1). Departures from normal roughly ranged from -2.27” in St. Petersburg to +0.17” in Gainesville (Table 2 and Appendix 1), though localized parts of the state saw rainfall totals that were as much as 3.00” below normal to 2.00” above normal (Figure 1). One 24-hour precipitation record was broken for the month (Table 3). Amongst stations with records going back over 100 years, 2017 was the 2nd wettest year on record for Pensacola, and 5th wettest for Jacksonville and Miami.
Table 2: December precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for select cities.
Table 3: Select daily rainfall records (inches) broken during December. (Compiled from NOAA, NWS).
Figure 1: A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for December is given in the figure below (courtesy of NOAA, NWS)
La Niña Conditions are Present in the Pacific.
Based on current data and forecast models, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) the ENSO alert system status is set to La Niña Advisory. La Niña conditions are currently present, with below normal sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Forecast models predict that La Niña conditions will continue through the winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during mid- to late spring 2018. Taking into account the ENSO forecast and long-term trends, the CPC seasonal outlook favors above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for Florida through March 2018.
Hazardous Weather Events in December.
December 2017 was a relatively quiet month for Florida, with 59 hazardous weather events recorded throughout the state. Over two-thirds of the hazardous weather reports for December were made on the 9th of the month and associated with a cold front passage. On that date, strong winds were reported across the central and south portions of the state, with gusts up to 58mph seen in Collier County; a few instances of light snow were reported in the panhandle, and ice over a bridge in Escambia County led to a fatal crash. Multiple instances of hazardous driving conditions due to dense fog were reported on the 22nd and 29th of the month in the southern portion of the state, with reduced visibility ranging from less than one quarter mile to just a few feet.
Table 4: Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of December (Compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet.)
Drought-Related Impacts.
At the end of November, about 22% of the state was experiencing abnormally dry (D0) conditions, and about 12% of the state (including Bay, Calhoun, Gadsden, Gulf, Holmes, Jackson, Franklin, Liberty, Washington, and parts of Leon, Walton, Wakulla Counties) was under moderate drought (D1). As the month progressed, D0 conditions were lifted from Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Citrus, Gilchrist, Levy, Marion, Union, and most of Dixie County. At the same time, the area covered by D1 conditions expanded further westward, into Jefferson, Madison, northwest Taylor and northwest Hamilton counties. Overall, about 9.5% of the state is under D0, and about 18% - under D1 conditions. As of the latest U.S. Drought monitor report, released on December 26th, approximately 765, 000 Florida citizens are currently in drought-impacted areas.
The water levels in Lake Okeechobee have been gradually returning down closer to normal values for this time of the year, and measured at 15.49 feet at the end of December.
Figure 2: Latest U. S. Drought Monitor Map for Florida (from http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/)
Agriculture-Related Impacts.
At the beginning of December, topsoil moisture levels across the state were mainly adequate (50%) to short (29%), with some surplus and few very short values. This distribution remained in effect for the duration of the month, with only minor changes. The citrus region remained drought-free throughout the month, but most groves were running irrigation to compensate for only sporadic rainfall. Some growers reported early blooming, possibly affected by warmer temperatures. Some vegetables in Palm Beach County also required irrigation due to insufficient rainfall, and some vegetable crops in southern counties saw increase in disease resulting from foggy conditions. Pasture quality is seasonally declining, and was affected by generally low amounts of rainfall. Some pastures were reported damaged by frost in Dixie, Jackson, Osceola and Walton Counties. Cattle are provided supplemental feeding as necessary and remain in mostly good conditions.
Appendix 1: Additional December departures from normal data for Florida locations.
Appendix 2: Select daily maximum and minimum temperature records (° F) broken or tied during December (compiled from NOAA, NWS).
Prepared by Lydia Stefanova, Daniel J. Brouillette, and David F. Zierden.
Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL
Average temperatures in January were below normal across the state. The departures from average temperatures in January 2018 were below normal across the entire state, with the exception of a single long-term measuring station (Melbourne). Measured departures from normal ranged from -4.2˚F in Gainesville to +1.6˚F in Melbourne (Table 1 and Appendix 1). Minimum temperatures at or below freezing were recorded in multiple days in the Panhandle and all the way to south-central Florida, ranging from 16 days in Tallahassee, 15 days in Gainesville, 12 days in Jacksonville, 11 days in Pensacola, 3 days in Orlando, and 1 day in Melbourne and Tampa. Despite this, for none of the long-term measuring stations with 100 or more years on record did the monthly mean temperatures rank amongst the bottom (or top) ten for January. A handful of daily temperature records were tied or broken across the state (Appendix 2).
Table 1: January average temperatures and departures from normal (˚F) for selected cities.
Rainfall totals in January were mixed across the state. Rainfall totals in January 2018 were below normal in the Panhandle and in most of South Florida, and above normal for most of the northern and central portions of the Peninsula (Figure 1). Departures from normal roughly ranged from -2.61” in Tallahassee to +2.77” in Tampa (Table 2 and Appendix 1), although localized parts of the state saw rainfall totals that were as much as 5.00” below normal to 5.00” above normal (Figure 1). One 24-hour rainfall record was broken for the month (Table 3). A record snowfall of 0.1’’ was measured in Tallahassee on January 3rd, breaking the old record of trace set in 2002. This was the first measurable snowfall for Tallahassee since December 23, 1989, and the first measurable snow on record (dating back to 1885) for Tallahassee during the month of January.
Table 2: January precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for select cities.
Table 3: Select daily rainfall records (inches) broken during January. (Compiled from NOAA, NWS).
Figure 1: A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for January is given in the figure below (courtesy of NOAA, NWS)
La Niña Conditions are Present in the Pacific.
Based on current data and forecast models, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) ENSO Alert System Status is set to a La Niña advisory. ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present, with sea surface temperatures (SST) below average across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Niña conditions are likely to persist through the end of winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral expected during the spring. The CPC seasonal outlook favors above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for Florida through April 2018.
Hazardous Weather Events in January.
A total of 96 hazardous weather events were recorded in the National Weather Service Local Storm Reports database for January 2018. Over half (54 reports) were related to wintry precipitation (freezing rain, snow, or sleet), followed by high winds (37 reports). Most (41) of the wintry precipitation events were on the 3rd, and the remainder – on the 17th.
Most of the high wind events took place between the 1st and 3rd along the Atlantic Coast from Nassau to Volusia Counties, as a cold airmass pushed into the state, with reports of wind gusts of 40-50 mph. A strong winter storm prompted winter weather warnings for a large portion of the state on January 3rd, and schools were closed in a number of districts in anticipation of snow, sleet, and ice. On that day, freezing rain was seen in Nassau, Madison, Leon, Gadsden, Duval, Wakulla, Columbia, Taylor, Lafayette, Union, Alachua, Gilchrist, Dixie, and Levy Counties. Light snow was recorded in Leon and Union Counties, with an accumulation of 0.1’’ measured in Tallahassee. Icy conditions required closures of several highways and bridges in the Big Bend, including parts of Interstate 10. Ice accumulation of 0.25’’ was reported in Hilliard (Nassau County) and Lake City (Columbia County). Icing of power lines following the freezing rain resulted in several power outages in Columbia, Lafayette, and Nassau Counties.
A second winter storm affected the state on January 17th, bringing snow, sleet and freezing rain to much of the Panhandle. Light snow was observed in Bay and Walton Counties, and sleet or freezing rain was seen in Escambia, Okaloosa, Walton, Jackson, and Gadsden Counties.
Table 4: Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of January (Compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet.)
Drought-Related Impacts.
At the beginning of January, approximately 73% of the state was drought-free. The remainder of the state, encompassing the entire Panhandle, was either experiencing moderate drought (22%) or was abnormally dry (5%). The Panhandle drought gradually deepened as the month progressed, but the affected area expanded only slightly. As of the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Report, issued on the 30th, about 21% of the state – from Escambia to Jefferson County – is experiencing severe drought. Moderate drought conditions are affecting parts Taylor, Madison, and Hamilton Counties, and abnormally dry conditions are seen in parts of Taylor, Lafayette, Madison, Suwannee, Hamilton, Columbia and Nassau Counties. Based on census data, roughly 1.4 million Florida citizens, or about 8% of the state’s population, are currently residing in drought-impacted areas.
Water levels in Lake Okeechobee are still above normal but are continuing on a downward trend since peaking in October. The water elevation by the end of the month was 15.23’, which is about 0.6’ above normal for this time of the year.
Figure 2: Latest U. S. Drought Monitor Map for Florida (from http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/)
Agriculture-Related Impacts.
At the beginning of January, topsoil moisture levels were at mainly (57%) adequate, although some (23%) short or very short (5%), and some surplus (15%) values were reported across the state. At the end of the month, the proportion of adequate topsoil moisture level was similar (58%) but the proportion of short values increased to 33% and that of surplus values decreased to 7%.
The citrus area experienced below freezing temperatures on several occasions – in some cases dropping down to the mid-20s – but those temperatures were not cold enough for long enough to cause any major problems. Most groves were irrigated, because even though the entire citrus-growing region was drought-free throughout the month, it generally received only light rain.
Hard freezes damaged strawberry and blueberry crops in Bradford and Osceola Counties. Many vegetable producers either covered or heavily harvested their crops ahead of the freezes, or used freeze protection irrigation systems. As a result, most vegetables were largely unscathed by the cold, except for minor damage to some sensitive crops.
Many pastures across the Panhandle and Central Peninsula were damaged by freezing temperatures, and most winter grazing in Holmes County failed. Pasture quality across has been declining with the cold temperatures across the state and drought in much of the Peninsula. Cattle are receiving supplemental feeding and have remained in mostly good condition.
In Lafayette County poultry farmers have reported increased spending on heating fuel needed to keep birds warm, and rye and oat crops have been affected by ice.
Sugarcane harvesting and planting has been largely unaffected by the cold weather, and is proceeding as usual.
Appendix 1: Additional January departures from normal data for Florida locations.
Appendix 2: Select daily maximum and minimum temperature records (° F) broken or tied during January (compiled from NOAA, NWS).
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