Florida Climate Center

Prepared by Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

Key Points:

• A warm and wet pattern emerged for much of the state in March, with above normal rainfall for the northern half of the state, alleviating drought in some locations, but the south continued to have below normal rainfall.
• An active storm pattern returned across the south and southeast U.S., which included a wildfire outbreak early in the month in the Florida Panhandle and a severe weather outbreak late in the month.
• During the first week of March, moderate drought (D1) impacted much of Florida, including the Panhandle and western Peninsula, with severe drought (D2) emerging in Dixie and Levy counties. By the end of March, drought had improved across the Panhandle and Big Bend regions as rainfall returned, but much of south Florida continues to experience moderate drought or abnormally dry conditions.
• A La Niña advisory is expected the continue through summer, but its influence may begin to wane, as the precipitation outlook through the summer calls for equal chances below, above, or near normal in Florida

Average temperatures in March were above normal across the state. Average temperature departures from normal ranged from +1.9 ̊F in Tallahassee to +5.5 ̊F in Fort Myers for the month (see Table 1 and Appendix 1 for select cities). Several stations recorded one of their top five warmest months of March on record. Fort Myers recorded its warmest March on record, while Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville Beach had their 3rd-warmest March on record. Several daily high maximum and high minimum temperature records were tied or broken throughout the month (see appendix 2 for daily high maximum temperature records).

Table 1.  March average temperatures and departures from normal ( ̊F) for selected cities.

Rainfall totals in March were above normal for most places in the northern half of the state and below normal in the south. The monthly precipitation departures from normal ranged from -0.97 inches in Key West to +9.1 inches in Gainesville (Table 2 and Appendix 1). Most southerly locations in the state recorded a precipitation deficit for the month, but some places especially in north-central Florida saw a surplus of rainfall (Figure 1). Gainesville and Cross City recorded their wettest March on record, while Fort Lauderdale had its 7th-driest March on record. As a result of continued dryness, moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions continue to impact much of the southern Peninsula (see below).

Table 2. March precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Figure 1. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for March (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

La Niña Advisory Continues.

La Niña, the cool phase of the ENSO climate pattern, is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (53% chance during June-August), with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO-neutral thereafter. After weakening in January, below-average sea surface temperatures strengthened during February 2022 across the central and east-central tropical Pacific as the weekly Niño-3.4 index decreased from -0.6 ̊ C in early February to -1.1 ̊ C in the last week of February.

Hazardous Weather Events in March.

According to the Local Storm Reports issued by the local National Weather Service offices serving Florida, there were 483 individual local reports of hazardous weather events recorded across the state during the month of March 2022 (see Table 4 for a breakdown by event type). Early in the month, wildfires broke out across the Panhandle as below-normal rainfall and warm weather led to the development of abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions. Another factor contributing to this wildfire outbreak was the unusual amount of fuel on the ground as a result of Hurricane Michael nearly four years ago, which decimated forests on private land in this area. Wildfires threatened several communities and led to the evacuation of a community and nursing home in Bay County. On the 31st, a tornado in Washington County, Florida resulted in two fatalities and two injuries, part of a severe weather outbreak across 7 states that generated at least 30 tornadoes in total.

Table 4. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of March (compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet).

Drought-Related Impacts.

During the first week of March, much of Florida was experiencing drought. About 2% of the state was in severe drought (D2), 50% of the state was in moderate drought (D1), and 36% was experiencing abnormally dry conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Conditions improved in northern Florida throughout the month as a wet pattern emerged. By the end of the month, no areas were in severe drought (D2), 23% of the state (southwestern Florida) was in moderate drought (D1), and 32% was abnormally dry.

As of March 31, the Lake Okeechobee water level was 13.78 ft. above sea level (Feet-NGVD29), which is below average for this time of the year. The water level fell below average early in the month and continued to decline. At the first of the month, the water level was around 14.52 ft. above sea level.

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

While temperatures were above normal for the month of March, a mid-month frost led to some damage to crops including to berries, watermelon, and planted corn in the northern part of the state. Pasture conditions were poor to good throughout the state due to late cool weather and frost. Cattle remained in mostly good condition due to supplemental hay feeding. Sugarcane harvest was close to completion in the southern part of the Peninsula. Strawberry harvest continued and should conclude soon. Several vegetable crops were marketed including tomatoes, peppers, eggplant, sweet corn, green beans, yellow squash, zucchini, herbs, and avocadoes. Citrus fruit harvested included white and red grapefruit, oranges, tangerines, and tangelos. For more information, consult the Crop Progress - State Stories reports, which is produced monthly December through March.

Appendix 1
Additional March departures from normal data for select Florida locations (Source: NWS).

Appendix 2
Select daily record high maximum temperatures broken or tied during March (compiled from NOAA).

Prepared by Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

November Key Points:

• Temperatures were below normal across the state for the month.
• Precipitation in the Florida Panhandle was below normal in November, the first time in 7 months for some places in the region, while precipitation in the rest of the state was above normal.
• Abnormally dry conditions emerged in the northern Panhandle region toward the end of the month.
• The 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially ended as the third most active year on record.
• The December outlook favors above normal temperatures and continued dryness with below normal precipitation.

Average temperatures in November were below normal across the state. Average temperature departures ranged from -4.3 ̊F in Jacksonville to -0.4 ̊F in Orlando for the month (see Table 1 and Appendix 1 for select cities). Much of the state experienced cooler-than-normal temperatures during the month and especially during the first half of the month. Only one daily high maximum temperature record was set, and no daily high minimum temperature records were set during the month; however, there were several daily low maximum temperature records set, particularly early in the month.

Table 1.  November average temperatures and departures from normal ( ̊F) for selected cities.

Rainfall totals in November were below normal in the Panhandle and above normal across the Peninsula (Figure 1). Monthly departures from normal ranged from -4.11 inches in Pensacola to +2.41 inches in Orlando (Table 2 and Appendix 1). Much of the Panhandle was drier than normal, and the western Panhandle broke its wet streak with above normal precipitation for the past several months. Pensacola has had wetter than normal conditions since April, but it experienced its fourth driest November on record. Pensacola maintains a surplus in annual rainfall due to excessive rainfall in prior months with an annual total of 86.65 inches so far, which is just shy of 24 inches above normal to date. Venice and Hollywood had their second wettest Novembers on record.

Table 2. November precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Figure 1. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for November (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

La Niña Advisory.

La Niña conditions, the cool phase of the ENSO climate pattern, returned to the tropical Pacific Ocean in October. Below-average subsurface temperatures (averaged from 180-100°W) strengthened significantly over the past month, as negative anomalies were observed at depth across most of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. There is now a 90% chance of La Niña conditions continuing in the Northern Hemisphere winter, and it is likely to continue into spring 2022 (~50% during March-May). At its peak, a moderate-strength La Niña is favored. ENSO-neutral conditions could potentially return during April-June 2022.

Hazardous Weather Events in November.

According to the Local Storm Reports issued by the local National Weather Service offices serving Florida, there were 209 individual local reports of hazardous weather events recorded across the state during the month of November (see Table 4 for a breakdown by event type). Heavy rain affected several parts of the state on the 5th and 6th, including Volusia and Collier Counties which experienced over 7 and 9 inches of rainfall, respectively. Further, high water levels caused coastal flooding in several places across the state on the 7th. The Mayport tide gauge in Duval County reached its 6th highest water level on record at 2.51 feet above MHHW, and the Fernandina Beach tide gauge reached its 7th highest water level on record, reaching 2.93 feet above MHHW. These are the highest water levels ever to occur with a non-tropical weather system. Heavy rainfall again affected parts of the state later in the month. On the 21st, 10-11 inches of rain fell in parts of St. Lucie County near River Park.

Table 4. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of November (compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet).

Drought-Related Impacts.

Much of November remained drought free across the state. Northeast Florida experienced abnormally dry conditions (D0) in early November but was drought free by mid-month. By November 30, abnormally dry conditions emerged in northern sections of the Panhandle, with 5.2% of the state experiencing abnormally dry conditions according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

As of November 30, the Lake Okeechobee water level was at 15.94 ft. above sea level (Feet-NGVD29), which is above the average for this time of the year. The water level remained above average throughout the month. At the first of the month, the water level was 15.85 ft. above sea level.

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

During mid-November, topsoil moisture levels were adequate for 72% of the state, short in 10%, and very short in 1% of the state; 17% of the state was in surplus. By the end of November, topsoil moisture levels were adequate in 65% of the state, short in 24%, and very short in 2%; 9% of the state was in surplus. For more information, consult the weekly Crop Progress and Conditions report published by the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Appendix 1
Additional November departures from normal data for select Florida locations (Source: NWS).

Prepared by Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

Summary:

• Average monthly temperatures in Florida were much above normal in July.
• Monthly precipitation totals were generally above normal in northern Florida and below normal across much of southern Florida.
• Drought improvement occurred throughout the month of July, with just 0.24% of the state in moderate drought (D1) by month’s end.
• ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean. A transition to La Niña conditions has been slightly delayed but is expected during August-October 2024 (70% chance).

Average monthly temperatures in July were much above normal. Average monthly temperature departures from normal ranged from -1.0 ̊F in Pensacola to +2.9 ̊F in Orlando for the month (see Table 1 and Appendix 1 for select cities). July 2024 was the warmest July on record for several stations, including Orlando (70 years), Punta Gorda (104 years), Tampa Bay (38 years), and Ft. Lauderdale (106 years). July 2024 was 2nd-warmest in several other locations, including Tallahassee, Jacksonville, Daytona Beach, Leesburg, Bradenton, and Key West. Overnight, or minimum, temperatures were especially warm in July. The following also recorded their warmest July on record based on monthly average minimum, or nighttime, temperatures: Tallahassee, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Orlando, Punta Gorda, and Ft. Lauderdale. Select daily high maximum temperature records tied or broken during the month are provided in Appendix 2.

Table 1. July average temperatures and departures from normal ( ̊F) for selected cities.

Monthly rainfall totals in July were generally above normal in northern Florida and the Panhandle and below normal across southern Florida, except along the southwest coast. The monthly precipitation departures from normal ranged from -3.73 inches in West Palm Beach to +6.70 inches in Naples (see Table 2 and Appendix 1 for select locations). Rainfall was quite variable in Florida in July, with generally dry conditions along the Atlantic Coast and wetter conditions in North Florida and along the southwest coast, particularly around Naples. Rainfall across the Panhandle was a bit of a ‘hit and miss’ pattern with summertime thunderstorm development. Drought conditions in central and northern regions have continued to improve since about mid-June (see Figure 2).

Table 2. July precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Figure 1. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for July (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

ENSO Neutral / La Niña Watch.

ENSO-neutral conditions currently exist in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to persist for the next few months. La Niña conditions are favored to emerge during August-October 2024 (70% chance), which is slightly delayed from last month’s forecast. La Niña conditions are expected to persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter (79% chance during November-January).

Hazardous Weather Events in July.

According to the Local Storm Reports issued by the local National Weather Service offices serving Florida, there were 204 individual local reports of hazardous weather events recorded across the state during the month of July (see Table 4 for a breakdown by event type). Reports of damage associated with heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts, and small hail impacted the state this month. A lightning strike outside of a restaurant in St. Petersburg on the 25th caused four injuries. Rip currents led to one fatality in Daytona Beach on July 3rd.

Table 3. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of July (compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet).

Daily Record Events in July.

Table 4. Summary of daily records broken or set in Florida in July (source: NCEI Daily Weather Records).

Drought-Related Impacts.

Drought conditions improved throughout the month of July. By mid-July, 2.6% of the state was experiencing moderate drought (D1) and 42.1% of the state was abnormally dry (D0), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. By the end of the month, only 0.24% of the state was in moderate drought (D1) and 12.9% was abnormally dry (D0) (Figure 2 below).

As of July 31, the Lake Okeechobee water level was 13.56 ft. above sea level (Feet-NGVD29), which is slightly below average for this time of year. At the first of the month, the water level was below average at 13.49 ft. above sea level.

Figure 2. A graphical depiction of the latest drought conditions in Florida according to the U.S. Drought Monitor (courtesy of the National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln).

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

In mid-July, topsoil moisture conditions were adequate in 79% of the state, short in 9%, and very short in 1% of the state, while 11% of the state had surplus topsoil moisture conditions. By the end of July, topsoil moisture conditions were adequate in 87% of the state, short in 5%, and very short in 0% of the state; 8% of the state was in surplus conditions. For more information, consult the Crop Progress and Conditions report, which is published by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Appendix 1
Additional July departures from normal data for select Florida locations (Source: NWS).

Appendix 2
Select daily record high maximum temperatures (°F) tied or broken during July (compiled from NOAA).

Prepared by Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

May Key Points:

• May was near normal and dry for much of Florida.
• Moderate drought conditions (D1) expanded across southwestern Florida during the month, but this is likely to be ameliorated with the onset of the summer rainy season.
• Wildfire risk increased across the state, particularly over central and south Florida.
• Above-normal tropical cyclone activity is likely (60%) for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
• Monthly climate data are now compared to the new normals (1991-2020), which were made official in early May.

Average temperatures in May were generally within +/- 2 ̊F of normal across the state. Average temperature departures ranged from -2.6 ̊F in Jacksonville to +2.7 ̊F in West Palm Beach for the month (see Table 1 and Appendix 1 for select cities) West Palm Beach had its warmest May on record. Many daily high maximum and daily high minimum temperature records were set during the month (see Appendices 2 and 3).

Table 1.  May average temperatures and departures from normal ( ̊F) for selected cities.

Rainfall totals in May were below normal across the state, especially in parts of south Florida, while the western Panhandle saw a surplus of rainfall. Much of Florida has been drier than normal over the past 90 days, and this trend continued in May (Figure 1). During mid to late May, a blocking pattern emerged over the eastern U.S. with a strong upper-level high pressure system commonly associated with slow-moving and persistent weather patterns. This led to heavy rainfall and wetter-than-normal conditions across the western and central Gulf Coast regions, but dry and hot conditions over Florida and much of the Southeast. The western Panhandle region was the only area with above normal rainfall during May. By the end of the month, south Florida had gone over 3 weeks without any measurable rainfall. Monthly departures from normal ranged from +4.59 inches in Pensacola to -4.30 inches in West Palm Beach (Table 2 and Appendix 1). Orlando and Ft. Myers had their driest May on record with 0.17 and 0.04 inches of rainfall, respectively. Several other cities ranked among the driest on record for May as well, including Lakeland (2nd driest), Homestead (4th driest), West Palm Beach (5th driest), and Ft. Pierce (3rd driest).

Table 2. May precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Figure 1. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for May (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

ENSO-Neutral Conditions.

The La Niña advisory ended in early May, shifting to ENSO-neutral conditions. Neutral conditions are expected to persist through summer (67% chance June-August), with more uncertainty in the models after summer based on the latest IRI/CPC models. There is a chance for La Niña conditions to redevelop during late fall or winter (50-55% chance), but given large uncertainty confidence in ENSO-neutral for the coming seasons is highest.

Hazardous Weather Events in May.

According to the Local Storm Reports issued by the local National Weather Service offices serving Florida, there were 127 individual local reports of hazardous weather events recorded across the state during the month of May (see Table 4 for a breakdown by event type). Severe storms swept through the Panhandle on May 10th, and lightning struck I-10 causing an accident and two injuries. Wildfires were active throughout the month. As of May 25, there were 61 active wildfires across the state with most of those contained, according to the Florida Forest Service. The Indian River County fire, known as the Tree Frog Fire, has burned roughly 800 acres and shut down I-95 for part of a day. In addition, wildfires have destroyed or damaged homes in multiple counties including St. Lucie, Marion and Collier Counties.

Table 4. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of May (compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet).

Drought-Related Impacts.

By the end of May, abnormally dry conditions existed across southern Florida and southwestern Florida was in moderate drought (D1). From early to mid-May, abnormally dry conditions existed across parts of the southern Peninsula, and pockets of moderate drought expanded across extreme southwestern Florida. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, about 21% of the state was experiencing abnormally dry conditions (D0) and roughly 7% was experiencing moderate drought (D1) by the end of the month.

As of May 31, the Lake Okeechobee water level was at 12.82 ft. above sea level (Feet-NGVD29), which is just below the average for this time of the year. At the first of the month, the water level was 13.99 ft. above sea level.

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

During mid-May, topsoil moisture levels were adequate for 57% of the state, short in 31%, and very short in 3%, while 9% of the state was in surplus. By the end of May, topsoil moisture levels were adequate in 30% of the state, short in 46%, and very short in 24% of the state; no part of the state was in surplus. Much of the state had either fair (34%), good (18%) or excellent (5%) pasture and range conditions by the end of the month. For more information, consult the weekly Crop Progress and Conditions report published by the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Appendix 1
Additional May departures from normal data for select Florida locations (Source: NWS).

Appendix 2
Select daily record high maximum temperatures tied or broken during May (compiled from NOAA).

Appendix 3
Select daily record high minimum temperatures tied or broken during May (compiled from NOAA).