3/6/2014 - NOAA has issued an "El Niño Watch" in their latest ENSO discussion issued this morning.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html
An "El Niño watch" means that conditions are favorable (50% probability or greater) than an El Niño will develop in the next six months.
There has been a fairly strong westerly wind event in the western Pacific in late December/early January and more westerly winds this past week or so. Follow this link to see a textbook Kelvin wave making its monthlong march across the Pacific.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml
The first major impact of a developing El Niño would be an inactive hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. Following that we would expect a stormy, rainy, and cool fall and winter here in Florida and the coastal regions of the Southeast.
