Prepared by Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

Summary:

• Monthly average temperatures in July were near to above normal across Florida.
• Monthly precipitation totals in July were below normal in the Panhandle and mixed across the Peninsula.
• While drought conditions improved during July, moderate (D1) to extreme drought (D3) persisted in South Florida.
• ENSO-neutral conditions continued in the tropical Pacific Ocean and are expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer and early fall (56% chance during August-October).

Table 1. July average temperatures and departures from normal ( ̊F) for select cities.

Table 2. July precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Figure 1. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for July (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

ENSO-Neutral Conditions Present in Pacific.

ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over the past month, near-average sea surface temperatures continued across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the latest weekly Niño index values ranged from 0.0 ̊C to +0.4 ̊C. ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely to persist through the end of the Northern Hemisphere summer and early fall (56% chance during August-October). Chances of La Niña conditions increase into the winter 2025-26, but there is high uncertainty as chances for La Niña are comparable to chances for ENSO-neutral through winter.

Hazardous Weather Events in July.

According to the Local Storm Reports issued by the local National Weather Service offices serving Florida, there were 326 individual local reports of hazardous weather events recorded across the state during the month of July (see Table 3 for a breakdown by event type). July saw a typical active summer pattern, with hit-and-miss thunderstorms bringing heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds. A lightning strike injured three people at St. Pete Beach on the July 4th holiday, and lightning injured three others at the St. Augustine Beach pier on the 12th. Plant City experienced flash flooding after 9-12 inches of rain fell within 24 hours on the 14th. Later in the month, a large area of high pressure led to below-normal rainfall and dangerous humid heat across the state with heat index values peaking to over 115 ̊F in some places. Wildfires were reported in Southeast Florida in Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade Counties. The 13 Mile Fire in Palm Beach County has burned 13,000 acres, but no injuries or major impacts were reported.

Table 3. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of July (compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet).

Daily Record Events in July.

Table 4. Summary of daily records broken or set in Florida in July (source: NCEI Daily Weather Records).

Drought-Related Impacts.

Drought improved across Peninsular Florida over the past month, but drought continues to affect South Florida and some coastal regions. In mid-July, approximately 1% of the state was in extreme drought (D3), 8% was in severe drought (D2), 6% of the state was in moderate drought (D1), and 27% was abnormally dry (D0), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Not much changed during the second half of the month. By the end of July, approximately 1% of the state was in extreme drought (D3), 8% was in severe drought (D2), 5% was in moderate drought (D1), and 28% of the state was abnormally dry (D0) (Figure 2 below).

As of July 31, the Lake Okeechobee water level was 12.09 ft. above sea level (Feet-NGVD29), which is below average for this time of year. At the first of the month, the water level was 11.22 ft. above sea level.

Figure 2. A graphical depiction of the latest drought conditions in Florida according to the U.S. Drought Monitor (courtesy of the National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln).

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

In mid-July, topsoil moisture conditions were adequate in 57% of the state, short in 18%, and very short in 4% of the state, while 21% of the state had surplus topsoil moisture conditions. By the end of July, topsoil moisture conditions remained adequate in 65% of the state, were short in 14% of the state, and very short in 1% of the state, while 20% of the state had surplus topsoil moisture conditions. For more information, consult the Crop Progress and Conditions report, which is published by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Appendix 1
Additional July departures from normal data for select Florida locations (Source: NWS).

Appendix 2
Select daily record high maximum temperatures (°F) tied or broken during July 2025 (compiled from NOAA).

Prepared by Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

Summary:

• Monthly average temperatures in August were mixed, with below to near normal temperatures in the Panhandle and near to above normal temperatures in the Peninsula.
• Monthly precipitation totals in August were near to above normal in the Panhandle and western Florida, above normal in northeastern Florida, and below normal in central to southeastern areas.
• Drought conditions improved during August, but moderate (D1) to extreme drought (D3) persisted in southeastern Florida where large year-to-date rainfall deficits exist.
• A brief period of La Niña is favored to develop in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during fall and early winter 2025-26 (~58% chance during October-December), followed by a return to ENSO-neutral conditions.

Table 1. August average temperatures and departures from normal ( ̊F) for select cities.

Table 2. August precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Figure 1. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for August (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

La Niña Watch.

ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean and are likely to persist through the late Northern Hemisphere summer and early fall (56% chance during August-October). During the past month, near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continued across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest weekly Niño SST index values ranged from -0.3 ̊C to 0.0 ̊C. Subsurface temperature anomalies became weakly negative in the eastern Pacific Ocean during the past month. A brief period of La Niña is favored to develop during the fall and early winter 2025-26 (with a roughly 58% chance during October-December) before returning to ENSO-neutral conditions.

Hazardous Weather Events in August.

According to the Local Storm Reports issued by the local National Weather Service offices serving Florida, there were 287 individual local reports of hazardous weather events recorded across the state during the month of August (see Table 3 for a breakdown by event type). The Palm Beach County wildfire in the early part of the month burned a total of 11,400 acres and was reported as 100% contained by August 4th. Later in the month, a wildfire burned in rural Broward County and impacted visibility and air quality in metro areas of southeastern Florida. Thunderstorms throughout the month led to flash flooding and strong wind gusts. Lightning led to two injuries and caused a structure fire in Marion County mid-month.

Table 3. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of August (compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet).

Daily Record Events in August.

Table 4. Summary of daily records broken or set in Florida in August (source: NCEI Daily Weather Records).

Weather/Climate Highlights of the Month: Hurricane Erin

Hurricane Erin became the first hurricane and first major hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Tropical Storm Erin developed into a hurricane on August 15, just a few days behind climatology, and Erin quickly strengthened from a Category 1 to a Category 5 hurricane between the evening hours of Friday, August 15, and Saturday morning, August 16, as it moved through warm water in the Atlantic. As a category 5 hurricane, Erin passed just north of Puerto Rico and turned northward.

Erin experienced extreme rapid intensification as maximum sustained winds increased by 85 mph in under 24 hours, which far surpasses the threshold for rapid intensification (35 mph in 24 hours). The storm then experienced weakening to a Category 2 storm as it underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, but it maintained Category-2 strength for several days as it moved northward and grew in size.

While Erin did not make landfall in the U.S., the storm’s large size and wind field led to major impacts along the East Coast of the U.S. A mandatory evacuation was issued for parts of the North Carolina coast, as high wind gusts and large waves of 15-20 feet led to overwashing and major erosion along the coast. The storm was a timely reminder that hurricanes can still impact land without making a direct hit.

Drought-Related Impacts.

Drought improved across Peninsular Florida during August, but long-term drought continued to impact southeastern Florida as of late August, with extreme drought (D3) along the coastal portions of Palm Beach and Broward Counties. In mid-August, 0.17% of the state was in extreme drought (D3), about 5% was in severe drought (D2), 7% of the state was in moderate drought (D1), and 18% was abnormally dry (D0), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. By the end of the month, approximately 0.5% of the state was in extreme drought (D3), 2% was in severe drought (D2), 5% was in moderate drought (D1), and 9% of the state was abnormally dry (D0) (Figure 2 below).

As of August 31, the Lake Okeechobee water level was 12.53 ft. above sea level (Feet-NGVD29), which is below average for this time of year. At the first of the month, the water level was 12.06 ft. above sea level.

Figure 2. A graphical depiction of the latest drought conditions in Florida according to the U.S. Drought Monitor (courtesy of the National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln).

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

In mid-August, topsoil moisture conditions were adequate in 82% of the state, short in 12%, and very short in 1% of the state, while 5% of the state had surplus topsoil moisture conditions. By the end of August, topsoil moisture conditions were adequate in 76% of the state, were short in 10% of the state, and very short in 0% of the state, while 14% of the state had surplus topsoil moisture conditions. For more information, consult the Crop Progress and Conditions report, which is published by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Appendix 1
Additional August departures from normal data for select Florida locations (Source: NWS).

Appendix 2
Select daily record high maximum temperatures (°F) tied or broken during August 2025 (compiled from NOAA).

Prepared by Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

Average temperatures in February were on average 3 ̊F warmer than historical averages across the state. Average temperatures were at or near normal across northern Florida and the Panhandle and much above normal across the Florida Peninsula. Average temperatures for the month ranged from +5.8 ̊F in West Palm Beach to +0.2 ̊F in Pensacola (see Table 1 and Appendix 1 for select cities). West Palm Beach experienced its third warmest February on record, and Fort Lauderdale had its fourth warmest February on record. Many daily high maximum and high minimum temperature records were set during the month (see Appendices 2 and 3).

Table 1.  February average temperatures and departures from normal ( ̊F) for selected cities.

Rainfall totals in February were variable across the state with some locations receiving above normal rainfall and other locations with near or below normal rainfall. Monthly departures from normal ranged from -1.3 inches in Tallahassee to +3.4 inches in Jacksonville (Table 2 and Appendix 1). Much of the northern Peninsula and parts of the Panhandle had above normal rainfall while southwestern Florida experienced below normal rainfall throughout the month (Figure 1). No monthly rainfall records were set during the month. Vero Beach had its third wettest February on record and Jacksonville had its fourth wettest February on record.

Table 2. February precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Figure 1. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for February (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

La Niña Conditions in the Pacific Persisted.

La Niña conditions continued during February, but forecasters estimate a shift to ENSO-neutral conditions this spring (~60% chance for April-June). ENSO-neutral conditions are then expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere summer. Recent stratospheric warming and disruptions in the polar vortex, along with a negative phase in the Arctic Oscillation, have influenced weather patterns in the eastern U.S. this winter and overwhelmed typical weather patterns generally seen during La Niña. However, more typical La Niña conditions have returned with above-average temperatures and drier than average conditions across much of the southern tier of the U.S.

Hazardous Weather Events in February.

According to the Local Storm Reports issued by the local National Weather Service offices serving Florida, there were 249 individual local reports of hazardous weather events recorded across the state during the month of February (see Table 4 for a breakdown by event type).

Table 4. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of February (compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet).

Drought-Related Impacts.

Near the end of February 2021, abnormally dry conditions were found in parts of the Florida Peninsula and the extreme western panhandle region. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 33 percent of the state was in abnormally dry conditions (D0) at the end of the month. In early February, abnormally dry conditions emerged across much of the Florida Peninsula but by mid-February these conditions dissipated in some areas. Dry conditions are expected to continue, and the seasonal drought outlook indicates that drought development is likely through the spring across the Peninsula.

As of February 28, the Lake Okeechobee water level was at 15.33 ft. above sea level (Feet-NGVD29), which is above average for this time of the year. At the first of the month, the water level was 15.51 ft. above sea level.

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

For the month of February, the Crop Progress - State Stories, produced monthly December through March, for Florida indicates that pasture conditions declined at the beginning of February due to colder temperatures but improved throughout the month as temperatures rose. Cattle conditions remained mostly good during the month, while sugarcane had minimal damage from frost that was reported mid-month. Toward the end of the month, powdery mildew and worm pressure were reported in some crops. Many citrus fruits were harvested, and several vegetable crops came to market.

Appendix 1
Additional February departures from normal data for select Florida locations (Source: NWS).

Appendix 2
Select daily record high maximum temperatures tied or broken during February (compiled from NOAA).

Appendix 3
Select daily record high minimum temperatures tied or broken during February (compiled from NOAA).

Prepared by Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

March Key Points:

• Temperatures were above normal, while rainfall was below normal across Florida.
• Abnormally dry conditions developed over peninsular Florida, and moderate drought developed in parts of the southern Peninsula by the end of the month.
• La Niña Advisory continues but appears to be weakening.
• CPC seasonal forecast favors above normal temperatures and equal chances of rainfall for spring.
• Drought development continues to be a risk as temperatures warm during spring with seasonal reduction in rainfall, especially over peninsular Florida.

Average temperatures in March were above normal across the state. Average temperatures ranged from +1.7 ̊F to +4.8 ̊F above normal for the month (see Table 1 and Appendix 1 for select cities). Temperatures were especially warm during the middle and latter parts of the month, with summer-like temperatures observed in many locations. For instance, in Pensacola daily high temperatures averaged 8.8 ̊F above normal and daily low temperatures averaged 12.2 ̊F above normal from March 12-17. Jacksonville Beach observed its fifth warmest March on record, and Pensacola observed its seventh warmest March on record. Many daily high maximum and high minimum temperature records were set during the month (see Appendices 2 and 3).

Table 1.  March average temperatures and departures from normal ( ̊F) for selected cities.

Rainfall totals in March were below normal across the state. Most of the Panhandle and peninsular Florida had below normal rainfall, with the exception of a few isolated locations in the western Panhandle and north central Florida (Figure 1). Monthly departures from normal ranged from -1.13 inches in Miami to -4.11 inches in Tallahassee (Table 2 and Appendix 1). Homestead observed its driest March on record, with a recorded 0.07 inches of rainfall during the month. Lakeland had its second driest March on record, and Key West had its third driest March on record.

Table 2. March precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Figure 1. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for March (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

La Niña Conditions in the Pacific Continue but Weaken.

La Niña conditions continued during March but it has weakened recently, and forecasters estimate a shift to ENSO-neutral conditions this spring (~60% chance for April-June). ENSO-neutral conditions are then expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere summer. La Niña conditions have returned with above-average temperatures and drier than average conditions across much of the southern tier of the U.S.

Hazardous Weather Events in March.

According to the Local Storm Reports issued by the local National Weather Service offices serving Florida, there were 127 individual local reports of hazardous weather events recorded across the state during the month of March (see Table 4 for a breakdown by event type). A wildfire was reported on March 16th in Big Cypress National Preserve, with portions of the preserve closed to the public and smoke possibly causing issues on HWY 41 and SR 29. Strong rip currents at Miramar Beach and Miami Beach resulted in multiple rescues and three fatalities during the month.

Table 4. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of March (compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet).

Drought-Related Impacts.

By the end of March 2021, abnormally dry conditions were widespread across the Florida Peninsula and parts of the southern Peninsula were in moderate drought. In early to mid-March, abnormally dry conditions existed across much of the Florida Peninsula and the western Panhandle regions. By the end of the month, pockets of moderate drought had formed in extreme southwestern Florida and southeast Florida. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 46 percent of the state was in abnormally dry conditions (D0) and 2 percent in moderate drought (D1) by the end of the month. Dry conditions are expected to continue, and the seasonal drought outlook indicates that drought development is likely through the spring across the Peninsula.

As of March 31, the Lake Okeechobee water level was at 14.44 ft. above sea level (Feet-NGVD29), which is right about average for this time of the year. At the first of the month, the water level was 15.32 ft. above sea level.

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

For the month of March, the Crop Progress - State Stories, produced monthly December through March, for Florida indicates that some pastures dried out by the end of the month due to warmer temperatures and a lack of rainfall. Cattle conditions remained mostly good during the month, and sugarcane harvesting continued. As temperatures rose during the month, Whiteflies and pest pressure were noted on vegetable crops in the southern part of the state. Many citrus fruits were harvested, including white and red grapefruit, Valencia oranges, and Honey, Tango and Royal tangerines. Field corn was planted and land was prepared for peanut and cotton crops in the Panhandle and northern parts of the state.

Appendix 1
Additional March departures from normal data for select Florida locations (Source: NWS).

Appendix 2
Select daily record high maximum temperatures tied or broken during March (compiled from NOAA).

Appendix 3
Select daily record high minimum temperatures tied or broken during March (compiled from NOAA).