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Prepared by Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

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Key Points:

  • Average monthly temperatures in October ended up near normal, with periods of much above and much below normal during the month.
  • Monthly precipitation totals in October were below normal across the state.
  • Drought rapidly worsened by the end of the month in the western Panhandle following about two weeks of no rainfall, while extreme drought persisted and expanded in west-central coastal areas.
  • El Niño is expected to persist through winter, with an 80% chance of continuing in spring (March-May 2024); chances of a strong event have increased to 75%-85%.

 

Average monthly temperatures in October were near average despite temperature swings throughout the month. Average temperature departures from normal ranged from -0.8 ̊F in Jacksonville to +1.9 ̊F in Miami for the month (see Table 1 and Appendix 1 for select cities). October saw wide temperature swings throughout the month, beginning and ending with above normal temperatures. However, mid-month saw below normal temperatures across the state by as much as 12 ̊F or 13 ̊F below normal. No monthly average temperature records were tied or broken in October. More daily high minimum temperature records were broken than high maximum temperatures during the month. Select daily high minimum temperature records tied or broken during the month are provided in Appendix 2.

Table 1. October average temperatures and departures from normal ( ̊F) for selected cities.

Station Mean Temperature Departure from Normal
Pensacola 71.0 -0.3
Tallahassee 70.5 +0.2
Jacksonville 70.4 -0.8
Orlando 76.0 +0.5
Tampa 77.5 +0.1
Miami 82.0 +1.9
Key West 82.3 +1.0 

 

Monthly rainfall totals in October were generally below normal across the state. The monthly precipitation departures from normal ranged from -3.26 inches in Pensacola to +1.05 inches in Gainesville (see Table 2 and Appendix 1 for select locations). All of north Florida and the Panhandle have not recorded any rainfall since mid-October and drought conditions deteriorated by month’s end across the western Panhandle and Tampa Bay regions (see below). Locations along coastal southwest Florida continue to see their driest year-to-date on record, including Naples, Sarasota, Venice, and Tarpon Springs. A pattern shift toward wetter conditions is expected around mid-November, but a dry pattern set in by late October without any tropical activity.

Table 2. October precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Station Total Rainfall Departure from Normal
Pensacola 1.44 -3.26
Tallahassee 2.99 -0.25
Jacksonville 2.65 -1.38
Orlando 2.07 -1.39
Tampa 0.38 -1.96
Miami 5.78 -1.87
Key West 4.19 -1.48 

 

Figure 1. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for October (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

Figure 1.  A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for October (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

 

El Niño Advisory.

El Niño conditions, the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation climate pattern in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean, continued in October. El Niño is expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24, with an 80% chance of continuing in spring (March-May 2024). Chances of a strong El Niño event have increased to a 75-85% chance. El Niño events favor wetter and cooler than normal winters in Florida. However, El Niño rainfall is late this year with drying conditions observed in recent weeks across much of the state.

 

Hazardous Weather Events in October.

According to the Local Storm Reports issued by the local National Weather Service offices serving Florida, there were 138 individual local reports of hazardous weather events recorded across the state during the month of October (see Table 4 for a breakdown by event type). At the beginning of the month, heavy rainfall led to flooding of roadways in Brevard County, and high tide flooding was reported in Duval, Broward, and Nassau Counties on the 1st. An EF2 tornado was reported in Flagler County on the 12th, which caused substantial damage to several houses but no injuries or fatalities were reported.

Table 3. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of October (compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet).

Report Type Number of Reports
Heavy Rain 36
Flood 6
Flash Flood 0
Coastal Flood 7
Hail 0
Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gust 25
Non-Thunderstorm Wind Damage 0
Tornado/Waterspout/Funnel Cloud 7/12/6
Thunderstorm Wind Damage 12
Thunderstorm Wind Gust 26
Dense Fog 1

 

Daily Record Events in October.

Table 4. Summary of daily records broken or set in Florida in October (source: NCEI Daily Weather Records).

Category Number of Records
Highest daily max. temp. 13
Highest daily min. temp. 51
Lowest daily max. temp. 31
Lowest daily min. temp. 11
Highest daily precipitation 23
Total 129

 

Weather/Climate Highlight of the Month: Drought Development.

Drought conditions worsened across the western Panhandle, where flash drought is currently underway. Most places across north Florida have gone over 20 consecutive days without rainfall as of early November. Pasture conditions are poor with very little pasture to graze. Most cattle operations are relying on supplemental feeding. Other agriculture reports in the area indicate they are waiting on rainfall for planting.

drought monitor

 

Drought-Related Impacts.

Drought persisted and deteriorated in the Panhandle and west-central coastal parts of the state in October. At the beginning of the month, drought affected the western Panhandle and west-central coast, while abnormally dry conditions were spread across North Florida. By the 17th, roughly 1% of the state was in extreme drought (D3), 9% was in severe drought (D2), 5% was experiencing moderate drought (D1), and 10% was abnormally dry (D0), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. By the end of the month, drought degraded rapidly in the western Panhandle. By the 31st, about 8% of the state was in extreme drought (D3), 4% was in severe drought (D2), 5% was in moderate drought (D1), and 16% was abnormally dry (D0) (see Figure 2 below).

As of October 31, the Lake Okeechobee water level was 16.20 ft. above sea level (Feet-NGVD29), which is above average for this time of year. At the first of the month, the water level was 15.82 ft. above sea level.

 

Figure 2. A graphical depiction of the latest drought conditions in Florida according to the U.S. Drought Monitor (courtesy of the National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln).

drought monitor

 

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

In mid-October, topsoil moisture conditions were adequate in 72% of the state, short in 16%, and very short in 3% of the state, while 9% of the state was experiencing surplus topsoil moisture conditions. By October 29, topsoil moisture conditions were adequate in 60% of the state, short in 23%, and very short in 16% of the state; 1% of the state was in surplus. For more information, consult the Crop Progress and Conditions Report, which is published by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.

 

Appendix 1
Additional October departures from normal data for select Florida locations (Source: NWS).

Station Average Temperature (˚F) Departure from Normal (˚F) Total Rainfall (in.) Departure from Normal (in.)
Gainesville 71.5 +0.1 3.73 +1.05
Sarasota 77.8 +0.5 0.70 -2.06
Naples 79.4 +0.9 2.50 -1.43
Fort Myers 78.5 +0.5 1.90 -1.18
West Palm Beach 79.6 +0.9 4.56 -1.34

 

Appendix 2
Select daily record high minimum temperatures (°F) broken or tied during October (compiled from NOAA).

Location Date Record Broken/Tied Last
Bradenton 1 77 Broken 76 in 2019
Hastings 1 75 Broken 74 in 2017
Stuart 5 80 Tied 80 in 2018
Key West 11 81 Tied 81 in 2022
Tarpon Springs 12 79 Broken 77 in 1994
Miles City 12 80 Broken 76 in 2018
Ochopee 12 82 Broken 78 in 1995
Orlando 12 77 Broken 75 in 2005
Fort Myers 12 80 Broken 77 in 1934
Key West 12 85 Broken 82 in 2002
Miami 12 84 Broken 82 in 2009
Tampa 12 81 Broken 77 in 2009
Vero Beach 12 79 Broken 76 in 2018
Lakeland 12 78 Broken 75 in 2018
Bradenton 13 79 Broken 76 in 2005
Clermont 13 78 Broken 77 in 1994
Fort Lauderdale 13 82 Broken 78 in 2019
Fort Pierce 13 79 Broken 78 in 2008
Hialeah 13 81 Broken 80 in 2022
Homestead 13 80 Broken 75 in 2019
Kissimmee 13 78 Broken 76 in 1995
Melbourne 13 79 Broken 77 in 1954
Plant City 13 79 Broken 74 in 1912
Stuart 13 80 Broken 78 in 1986
Titusville 13 79 Broken 78 in 1999
Ochopee 13 80 Broken 76 in 2017
Fort Myers 13 80 Broken 77 in 2005
Miami 13 83 Broken 80 in 2009
Key West 13 84 Broken 82 in 2009
Lakeland 13 78 Broken 74 in 2017
Fort Lauderdale 14 81 Broken 78 in 2001
Hialeah 14 80 Broken 79 in 2009
Homestead 14 79 Broken 76 in 2014
Miami 14 80 Tied 80 in 2009
Fort Lauderdale 15 79 Broken 78 in 1983
Usher Tower 24 79 Broken 72 in 1959
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Florida Climate Center