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Prepared by Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

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October Key Points:

  • Average temperatures during October were above normal for much of the state.
  • The Florida Panhandle experienced above normal rainfall totals, while the rest of the state experienced below normal rainfall for the month.
  • La Niña conditions have returned with an 87% chance of continuing through February.
  • Abnormally dry conditions emerged over eastern-northeastern parts of Florida late in the month.
  • Red tide (Karenia Brevis) affected the estuaries of the Apalachicola River and the Florida Panhandle.

 

Average temperatures in October were above normal across the state. Average temperature departures ranged from +0.6 ̊F in Key West and Jacksonville to +3.3 ̊F in Orlando for the month (see Table 1 and Appendix 1 for select cities). Tampa, Fort Myers, and Jacksonville Beach had their third warmest Octobers on record, while Orlando had its fourth warmest October on record. Several daily high maximum temperature records were set, and many daily high minimum temperature records were set during the month (see Appendix 2).

Table 1.  October average temperatures and departures from normal ( ̊F) for selected cities.

Station Mean Temperature Departure from Normal
Pensacola 73.4 +2.1
Tallahassee 71.5 +1.2
Jacksonville 71.8 +0.6
Orlando 78.8 +3.3
Tampa 80.4 +3.0
Miami 81.2 +1.1
Key West 81.9 +0.6 

 

Rainfall totals in October were above normal in the Panhandle and northern regions but below normal for much of the rest of the state (Figure 1). Monthly departures from normal ranged from +4.66 inches in Pensacola to -4.71 inches in Key West (Table 2 and Appendix 1). Monthly departures from normal ranged from +8.58 inches in Pensacola to -2.74 inches in Miami (Table 2 and Appendix 1). The western Panhandle region continues to be wetter than normal, with a surplus in annual rainfall at Pensacola of just over 28 inches above normal for the year to date. Pensacola had its fifth wettest October on record (seventh for the area overall), and Lakeland also had its fifth wettest October on record.

Table 2. October precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Station Total Rainfall Departure from Normal
Pensacola 13.28 +8.58
Tallahassee 5.29 +2.05
Jacksonville 4.15 +0.12
Orlando 3.21 -0.25
Tampa 1.35 -0.99
Miami 4.91 -2.74
Key West 3.27 -2.40 

 

Figure 1. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for October (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

Figure 1.  A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for October (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

 

La Niña Advisory.

La Niña conditions, the cool phase of the ENSO climate pattern, returned to the tropical Pacific Ocean in October. Below-average subsurface temperatures (averaged from 180-100°W) strengthened significantly over the past month, as negative anomalies were observed at depth across most of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. There is an 87% chance of La Niña conditions continuing in the Northern Hemisphere winter from December 2021 – February 2022. At its peak, a moderate-strength La Niña is favored. ENSO-neutral conditions are predicted to return during March-May 2022.

 

Hazardous Weather Events in October.

According to the Local Storm Reports issued by the local National Weather Service offices serving Florida, there were 201 individual local reports of hazardous weather events recorded across the state during the month of October (see Table 4 for a breakdown by event type). Early in the month, on October 7th, coastal areas of Bay County received daily rainfall amounts of between 3.55 and 8.67 inches of rainfall with reports of heavy rain and flash flooding. Despite reports of flooding, strong wind gusts, and two tornadoes throughout the month, no injuries or fatalities were reported.

 

Table 4. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of October (compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet).

Report Type Number of Reports
Flood 7
Flash Flood 37
Hail 0
Heavy Rain 18
Marine Thunderstorm Wind 44
Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gust 36
Non-Thunderstorm Wind Damage 1
Tornado/Waterspout/Funnel Cloud 2/14/4
Thunderstorm Wind Damage 6
Thunderstorm Wind Gust 29
Lightning 1
High Sustained Winds 2

 

Drought-Related Impacts.

Much of the month of October remained drought free across the state; however, abnormally dry conditions emerged toward the end of the month across eastern and northern parts of the state. As of October 26, 15.5% of the state was experiencing abnormally dry conditions (D0), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

As of October 31, the Lake Okeechobee water level was at 15.87 ft. above sea level (Feet-NGVD29), which is above the average for this time of the year. The water level remained above average throughout the month. At the first of the month, the water level was 15.57 ft. above sea level.

 

drought monitor

 

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

During mid-October, topsoil moisture levels were adequate for 65% of the state, short in 11%, and very shot in 1% of the state; 23% of the state was in surplus. By the end of October, topsoil moisture levels were adequate in 65% of the state, short in 18%, and very short in 1%; 16% of the state was in surplus. Much of the state had either fair (27%), good (47%) or excellent (23%) pasture and range conditions by the end of the month. For more information, consult the weekly Crop Progress and Conditions report published by the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service.

 

Appendix 1
Additional October departures from normal data for select Florida locations (Source: NWS).

Station Average Temperature (˚F) Departure from Normal (˚F) Total Rainfall (in.) Departure from Normal (in.)
Gainesville 72.6 +1.2 1.84 -0.84
Sarasota 79.0 +1.7 1.03 -1.73
Melbourne 77.6 +0.1 2.72 -2.14
Fort Myers 81.2 +3.2 3.19 +0.11
West Palm Beach 80.3 +1.6 9.02 +3.12

 

Appendix 2
Select daily record high minimum temperatures tied or broken during October (compiled from NOAA).

Location Date Record (˚F) Broken/Tied Last
Vero Beach 1 80 Broken 79 in 2019
Fort Lauderdale Beach 3 80 Tied 80 in 2019
Key West 3 82 Tied 82 in 1991
Jacksonville Beach 6 80 Broken 78 in 2019
Tampa 6 79 Tied 79 in 2009
Key West 6 83 Broken 82 in 2019
Key West 7 85 Broken 83 in 2009
Bradenton 8 77 Tied 77 in 2005
Key West 8 84 Broken 82 in 2017
Fort Myers 15 75 Tied 75 in 2018
Jacksonville Beach 16 84 Broken 78 in 2019
Vero Beach 21 77 Tied 77 in 2017
Bradenton 24 74 Broken 72 in 2020
Jacksonville Beach 24 76 Broken 74 in 1984
Orlando 24 73 Broken 72 in 2019
Fort Myers 24 76 Broken 75 in 2019
Orlando 24 72 Broken 71 in 2020
Bradenton 25 75 Tied 75 in 2019
Punta Gorda 25 75 Tied 75 in 2001
Miles City 25 75 Broken 74 in 2020
Gainesville 25 72 Broken 69 in 2019
Fort Myers 25 77 Broken 76 in 2019
Orlando 25 75 Broken 74 in 2020
Jacksonville 25 73 Broken 72 in 2020
Punta Gorda 26 75 Broken 74 in 2020
Venice 26 77 Broken 74 in 2019
Ochopee 26 77 Broken 75 in 2019
Key West 26 80 Broken 79 in 2020
Ochopee 29 76 Broken 75 in 2019
Fort Myers 29 76 Broken 75 in 2019
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Florida Climate Center