Climate Summary for Florida - October 2026

Prepared by Florida Climate Center
Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

Summary:

• Monthly average temperatures in October were generally near to above normal for the month.
• Monthly precipitation totals in October were above to well above normal, except in southern Florida which saw below normal precipitation.
• Drought improved during October and by the end of the month about 4% of the state was in severe drought (D2), 20% was in moderate drought (D1), and 33% was abnormally dry (D0), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
• El Niño continued to strengthen in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean and is expected to become a very strong event. There is an 83% chance of an historic event during October-December 2026 that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events.
• October featured impactful weather, including Hurricane Isaias, which made landfall at Category 2 strength on October 9 near Destin, FL, and record high tide flooding across the east coast of Florida.

Table 1. October average temperatures and departures from normal ( ̊F) for select cities.

Figure 1. Monthly average temperature departures from normal (°F) in Florida for October 2026.

Table 2. October precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Figure 2. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for October 2026 (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

El Niño Advisory in the Pacific Ocean.

El Niño continues to strengthen in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest ENSO forecast indicates an 83% chance or more for a strong to very strong event through January-March 2027. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño monitoring regions of the Pacific Ocean increased over the past month and subsurface ocean temperatures remained +10°C at depth. The coupled ocean-atmosphere system continues to reflect a robust El Niño event. There remains a high chance (83% during October-December 2026) for a historic event that would exceed the strength of all previous El Niño events dating back to 1950, which substantially increases the odds for experiencing typical El Niño impacts in Florida.

Hazardous Weather Events in October.

According to the Local Storm Reports issued by the local National Weather Service offices serving Florida, there were 300 individual local reports of hazardous weather events recorded across the state during the month of October (see Table 3 for a breakdown by event type). Hurricane Isaias became the first hurricane of the season and reached category 3 strength with peak winds of 120 mph. The storm made landfall on the evening of October 9 near Destin, Florida as a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. Isaias generated heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts in excess of 100 mph in areas near and just west of the eyewall, and 1 tornado in Florida, which moved onshore east of Eastpoint in Franklin County and caused minor damage to homes. One fatality was reported from the storm due to a downed tree in Escambia County, and injuries were reported from a car crash in Jackson County due to a tree in the road. From October 23-27, a Florida Nor’easter brought strong and persistent onshore winds across the entire eastern coast of Florida which coincided with king tides and resulted in moderate to major coastal flooding and erosion, along with isolated areas of moderate rainfall. Several tide gauges recorded record high tide levels, leading to closed roadways, closed businesses, and standing water in low-lying areas.

Table 3. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of October (compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet).

Daily Record Events in October.

Table 4. Summary of daily records broken, or set, in Florida in October 2026 (source: NCEI Daily Weather Records).

Drought-Related Impacts.

Drought improved over the past month across the state. Most areas that were experiencing drought at the beginning of the month saw between a 1- and 2-category improvement in drought over the past 4 weeks. As of October 13th, approximately 5% of the state was in severe drought (D2), 20% was in moderate drought (D1), and 32% was abnormally dry (D0), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. By the end of October, 4% of the state remained in severe drought (D2), 20% was in moderate drought (D1), and 33% of the state was abnormally dry (D0) (Figure 3 below).

As of October 31, the Lake Okeechobee water level was 12.77 ft. above sea level (Feet-NGVD29), which is below average for the time of year and near the water shortage management level of about 13.00 feet. At the first of October, the water level was 11.93 ft. above sea level.

Figure 3. A graphical depiction of the latest drought conditions in Florida according to the U.S. Drought Monitor (courtesy of the National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln).

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

Appendix 1
Additional October departures from normal data for select Florida locations (source: NWS).

Appendix 2
Select daily record high maximum temperatures tied or broken during October (compiled from NOAA).