Climate Summary for Florida - September 2026

Prepared by Florida Climate Center
Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

Summary:

• Monthly average temperatures in September were near normal in South Florida and above normal in northern Florida.
• Monthly precipitation totals in September were generally below normal in northern Florida and above normal in parts of central and south Florida.
• At the end of September, nearly 2% of the state was in extreme drought (D3), 11% was in severe drought (D2), 40% in moderate drought (D1), and 36% was abnormally dry (D0), while 11% of the state was drought free, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
• El Niño continued to strengthen in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean. There is currently a 75% chance of a historic event during the October-December 2026 period that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events. This greatly increases the odds for a wetter than average winter in Florida.

Table 1. September average temperatures and departures from normal ( ̊F) for select cities.

Figure 1. Monthly average temperature departures from normal (°F) in Florida for September 2026.

Table 2. September precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Figure 2. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for September 2026 (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

El Niño Advisory Continues in the Pacific Ocean.

El Niño continued to strengthen in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean over the past month and there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during fall and winter of 2026-2027. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific have reached +3.0°C and subsurface temperature anomalies were in excess of 10°C at depth. The coupled ocean-atmosphere system continues to reflect conditions consistent with a robust and strengthening El Niño. During the October-December 2026 period, there is now a 75% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of all previous El Niño events dating back to 1950. A very strong El Niño considerably increases the odds of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño, which means above average winter precipitation in Florida, particularly December through February, as well as an increased risk for severe weather. Read more about what a very strong El Niño will mean for Florida.

Hazardous Weather Events in September.

According to the Local Storm Reports issued by the local National Weather Service offices serving Florida, there were 199 individual local reports of hazardous weather events recorded across the state during the month of September (see Table 3 for a breakdown by event type). Strong thunderstorms led to multiple reports of damages mainly due to strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall. Lightning led to one injury and one fatality during the month, and lightning downed trees and was thought to be responsible for a structure fire that occurred in Pinellas County on the 8th. Coastal high-tide flooding was reported in Fort Lauderdale and Miami Beach and at Palm Coast in Flagler County during the last week of the month, where tidal flooding coincided with high tide leading to inundated roadways and flooding at the Fort Lauderdale International Airport. High surf caused one fatality on the 27th.

Table 3. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of September (compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet).

Daily Record Events in September.

Table 4. Summary of daily records broken, or set, in Florida in September 2026 (source: NCEI Daily Weather Records).

Drought-Related Impacts.

Monthly precipitation totals were below normal in northern Florida and above normal in much of southern Florida. Precipitation along the southeastern coast was well above normal, with surpluses greater than 8 inches. Overall, this led to drought improvements across much of the Peninsula during the month, with South Florida seeing between a one and three category improvement over the last 4 weeks. Drought degraded in parts of the Panhandle and central Florida. As of September 15th, approximately 2% of the state was in extreme drought (D3), 12% in severe drought (D2), 41% was in moderate drought (D1), and 36% was abnormally dry (D0), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. By the end of the month, 1.8% of the state remained in extreme drought (D3), 11% was in severe drought (D2), 40% was in moderate drought (D1), and 36% of the state was abnormally dry (D0) (Figure 3 below).

As of September 30, the Lake Okeechobee water level was 11.88 ft. above sea level (Feet-NGVD29), which is below average and below the water shortage management level of about 13.00 feet for this time of year. At the first of September, the water level was 10.98 ft. above sea level.

Figure 3. A graphical depiction of the latest drought conditions in Florida according to the U.S. Drought Monitor (courtesy of the National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln).

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

Appendix 1
Additional September departures from normal data for select Florida locations (source: NWS).

Appendix 2
Select daily record high maximum temperatures tied or broken during September (compiled from NOAA).