Climate Summary for Florida - July 2026

Prepared by Florida Climate Center
Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

Summary:

• Monthly mean temperatures in July were above normal in Florida.
• Monthly precipitation totals in July were generally below normal for the month, with some areas receiving above normal rainfall.
• Drought conditions continue to impact many regions of the state. By month's end, about 14% of the state was in extreme drought (D3), 38% in severe drought (D2), 20% in moderate drought (D1), and 25% was abnormally dry (D0), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
• El Niño strengthened in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean over the past month. El Niño will persist through winter and chances for a very strong event are currently 81% during October-December.
• Tropical Storm Bertha moved west in the northern Gulf of America from July 20-22, bringing rough surf and strong wind gusts to the Florida Gulf Coast before it made landfall in Louisiana and then in Texas.

Table 1. July average temperatures and departures from normal ( ̊F) for select cities.

Figure 1. Monthly average temperature departures from normal (°F) in Florida for July 2026.

Table 2. July precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Figure 2. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for July 2026 (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

El Niño Conditions Present in the Pacific Ocean.

Over the past month, El Niño strengthened in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean. An area of sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +1.5°C emerged across the central Niño-3.4 index region, and the latest easternmost regions (Niño-3 and Niño-1+2) were at +2.0°C and over +3.0°C, respectively. Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies have been observed over the equatorial Pacific, providing reinforcing factors for a strengthening event. El Niño is expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (100% chance), and there is an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño during October-December, which could rank among the strongest El Niño events in the historical record dating back to 1950.

Hazardous Weather Events in July.

According to the Local Storm Reports issued by the local National Weather Service offices serving Florida, there were 693 individual local reports of hazardous weather events recorded across the state during the month of July (see Table 3 for a breakdown by event type). The month was marked by strong winds, hail, and heavy rain from thunderstorms that downed trees and caused damage to property and infrastructure. Lightning strikes caused nine injuries and one fatality during the month. Strong thunderstorm winds led to two fatalities on the 10th when a tree fell on an occupied vehicle in Leon County and another fatality on the 6th when a tree fell on a home in Pasco County. Rip currents led to two fatalities in Volusia County on the 3rd. The largest sized hail reported was 1.25 inches in Washington County on the 8th. Tropical Storm Bertha moved westward offshore of the northern Gulf Coast and brought localized areas of heavy rain, strong wind gusts, and rough surf conditions to the Florida Gulf Coast from July 20-22.

Table 3. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of July (compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet).

Daily Record Events in July.

Table 4. Summary of daily records broken, or set, in Florida in July 2026 (source: NCEI Daily Weather Records).

Drought-Related Impacts.

Variable rainfall in July led to some targeted improvements as well as drought degradation during the month. By mid-July, approximately 16% of the state was in extreme drought (D3), 39% in severe drought (D2), and 21% was in moderate drought (D1), with about 17% abnormally dry (D0), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. By the end of the month, approximately 14% of the state was in extreme drought (D3), 38% was in severe drought (D2), and 20% was in moderate drought (D1), and about 25% of the state was abnormally dry (D0) (Figure 3 below).

As of July 31, the Lake Okeechobee water level was 10.89 ft. above sea level (Feet-NGVD29), which is below average for this time of year and remains below the water shortage management level. At the first of July, the water level was 10.93 ft. above sea level.

Figure 3. A graphical depiction of the latest drought conditions in Florida according to the U.S. Drought Monitor (courtesy of the National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln).

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

Appendix 1
Additional July departures from normal data for select Florida locations (source: NWS).

Appendix 2
Select daily record high maximum temperatures tied or broken during July (compiled from NOAA).