Climate Summary for Florida - May 2026

Prepared by Florida Climate Center
Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

Summary:

• Monthly mean temperatures in May were above normal in the Florida Peninsula and near to below normal in the Panhandle.
• Monthly precipitation totals in May were well above normal in the Panhandle and North Florida, and below normal in parts of central and south Florida.
• Drought persisted but improved in the western Panhandle. By the end of the month, about 17% of the state remained in exceptional drought (D4) and 47% was in extreme drought (D3), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
• ENSO-neutral conditions continued in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean, with a transition to El Niño likely in the next 1-2 months (82% chance May-July 2026).

Table 1. May average temperatures and departures from normal ( ̊F) for select cities.

Figure 1. Monthly average temperature departures from normal (°F) in Florida for May 2026.

Table 2. May precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Figure 2. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for May 2026 (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

El Niño Watch.

Over the past month, ENSO-neutral conditions have persisted in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean. Above-average sea surface temperatures and subsurface temperatures recently emerged across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. A transition to El Niño is likely soon (82% chance during May-July 2026) due to increasing subsurface temperature anomalies and westerly wind anomalies observed over the western equatorial Pacific. While confidence in the occurrence of an El Nino has increased, there remains uncertainty in its peak strength. Strength probabilities currently are estimated at 22%, 30%, and 37% for a moderate, strong, and very strong El Niño event, respectively, during the Northern Hemisphere 2026-2027 winter (November through January).

Hazardous Weather Events in May.

According to the Local Storm Reports issued by the local National Weather Service offices serving Florida, there were 241 individual local reports of hazardous weather events recorded across the state during the month of May (see Table 3 for a breakdown by event type). With the beginning of the rainy season, thunderstorm activity picked up during the month along with reports of heavy rain, flash flooding, hail, and high wind gusts. Ping pong sized hail (about 1.5 inches) was reported on the 10th in Volusia County. Wildfire activity was slowed by rainfall and storms, but lightning strikes were responsible for igniting wildfires in the Apalachicola National Forest within Wakulla County, which grew to 1,900 acres by May 25, as well as in Putnam and Broward Counties. Lightning also struck a kayaker on the Blackwater River on the 31st, which became fatal. In addition, several wildfires were active in Miami-Dade County during the month. The Highway 41 wildfire was reported as fully contained by the 4th, with a total of 9,149 acres burned; the Max Road fire grew to 11,443 acres and was fully contained as of the 14th; and the 172 Avenue fire was at 300 acres and 30% contained as of the 11th. Another wildfire in Collier County, known as the Rifle Range Road fire, was fully contained as of the 22nd with a total of 650 acres burned. Rip currents were responsible for one injury and two fatalities.

Table 3. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of May (compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet).

Daily Record Events in May.

Table 4. Summary of daily records broken or set in Florida in May 2026 (source: NCEI Daily Weather Records).

Drought-Related Impacts.

Due to the long-standing nature of the drought, rainfall has slowly brought improvements to the Panhandle where the highest rainfall totals were observed, but some areas such as the Big Bend and South Florida have remained much drier. By mid-May, approximately 24% of the state was in exceptional drought (D4), 57% in extreme drought (D3), 14% in severe drought (D2), and 4% was in moderate drought (D1), with about 1% abnormally dry (D0), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. By the end of the month, approximately 17% of the state was in exceptional drought (D4), 47% was in extreme drought (D3), 28% was in severe drought (D2), and 7% was in moderate drought (D1), with 1% still abnormally dry (D0) (Figure 2 below).

As of May 31, the Lake Okeechobee water level was 11.19 ft. above sea level (Feet-NGVD29), which is below average for this time of year. At the first of May, the water level was 11.64 ft. above sea level.

Figure 3. A graphical depiction of the latest drought conditions in Florida according to the U.S. Drought Monitor (courtesy of the National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln).

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

Appendix 1
Additional May departures from normal data for select Florida locations (source: NWS).

Appendix 2
Select daily record high maximum temperatures tied or broken during May (compiled from NOAA).