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Prepared by Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

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Key Points:

  • A warm and wet pattern emerged for much of the state in March, with above normal rainfall for the northern half of the state, alleviating drought in some locations, but the south continued to have below normal rainfall.
  • An active storm pattern returned across the south and southeast U.S., which included a wildfire outbreak early in the month in the Florida Panhandle and a severe weather outbreak late in the month.
  • During the first week of March, moderate drought (D1) impacted much of Florida, including the Panhandle and western Peninsula, with severe drought (D2) emerging in Dixie and Levy counties. By the end of March, drought had improved across the Panhandle and Big Bend regions as rainfall returned, but much of south Florida continues to experience moderate drought or abnormally dry conditions.
  • A La Niña advisory is expected the continue through summer, but its influence may begin to wane, as the precipitation outlook through the summer calls for equal chances below, above, or near normal in Florida

 

Average temperatures in March were above normal across the state. Average temperature departures from normal ranged from +1.9 ̊F in Tallahassee to +5.5 ̊F in Fort Myers for the month (see Table 1 and Appendix 1 for select cities). Several stations recorded one of their top five warmest months of March on record. Fort Myers recorded its warmest March on record, while Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville Beach had their 3rd-warmest March on record. Several daily high maximum and high minimum temperature records were tied or broken throughout the month (see appendix 2 for daily high maximum temperature records).

Table 1.  March average temperatures and departures from normal ( ̊F) for selected cities.

Station Mean Temperature Departure from Normal
Pensacola 65.1 +2.8
Tallahassee 63.3 +1.9
Jacksonville 64.5 +2.1
Orlando 72.5 +5.2
Tampa 73.9 +5.3
Miami 76.2 +3.1
Key West 76.5 +2.1 

 

Rainfall totals in March were above normal for most places in the northern half of the state and below normal in the south. The monthly precipitation departures from normal ranged from -0.97 inches in Key West to +9.1 inches in Gainesville (Table 2 and Appendix 1). Most southerly locations in the state recorded a precipitation deficit for the month, but some places especially in north-central Florida saw a surplus of rainfall (Figure 1). Gainesville and Cross City recorded their wettest March on record, while Fort Lauderdale had its 7th-driest March on record. As a result of continued dryness, moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions continue to impact much of the southern Peninsula (see below).

Table 2. March precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Station Total Rainfall Departure from Normal
Pensacola 6.09 +0.84
Tallahassee 9.05 +3.81
Jacksonville 9.95 +6.66
Orlando 5.76 +2.73
Tampa 2.91 +0.39
Miami 2.03 -0.43
Key West 0.56 -0.97 

 

Figure 1. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for March (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

Figure 1.  A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for March (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

 

La Niña Advisory Continues.

La Niña, the cool phase of the ENSO climate pattern, is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (53% chance during June-August), with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO-neutral thereafter. After weakening in January, below-average sea surface temperatures strengthened during February 2022 across the central and east-central tropical Pacific as the weekly Niño-3.4 index decreased from -0.6 ̊ C in early February to -1.1 ̊ C in the last week of February.

 

Hazardous Weather Events in March.

According to the Local Storm Reports issued by the local National Weather Service offices serving Florida, there were 483 individual local reports of hazardous weather events recorded across the state during the month of March 2022 (see Table 4 for a breakdown by event type). Early in the month, wildfires broke out across the Panhandle as below-normal rainfall and warm weather led to the development of abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions. Another factor contributing to this wildfire outbreak was the unusual amount of fuel on the ground as a result of Hurricane Michael nearly four years ago, which decimated forests on private land in this area. Wildfires threatened several communities and led to the evacuation of a community and nursing home in Bay County. On the 31st, a tornado in Washington County, Florida resulted in two fatalities and two injuries, part of a severe weather outbreak across 7 states that generated at least 30 tornadoes in total.

 

Table 4. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of March (compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet).

Report Type Number of Reports
Flash Flood 18
Heavy Rain 29
Flood 8
Hail 38
Lightning 1
Marine Thunderstorm Wind 51
Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gust 131
Non-Thunderstorm Wind Damage 11
Tornado/Waterspout/Funnel Cloud 20/5/2
Thunderstorm Wind Damage 71
Thunderstorm Wind Gust 91
Wildfire 7

 

Drought-Related Impacts.

During the first week of March, much of Florida was experiencing drought. About 2% of the state was in severe drought (D2), 50% of the state was in moderate drought (D1), and 36% was experiencing abnormally dry conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Conditions improved in northern Florida throughout the month as a wet pattern emerged. By the end of the month, no areas were in severe drought (D2), 23% of the state (southwestern Florida) was in moderate drought (D1), and 32% was abnormally dry.

As of March 31, the Lake Okeechobee water level was 13.78 ft. above sea level (Feet-NGVD29), which is below average for this time of the year. The water level fell below average early in the month and continued to decline. At the first of the month, the water level was around 14.52 ft. above sea level.

 

drought monitor

 

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

While temperatures were above normal for the month of March, a mid-month frost led to some damage to crops including to berries, watermelon, and planted corn in the northern part of the state. Pasture conditions were poor to good throughout the state due to late cool weather and frost. Cattle remained in mostly good condition due to supplemental hay feeding. Sugarcane harvest was close to completion in the southern part of the Peninsula. Strawberry harvest continued and should conclude soon. Several vegetable crops were marketed including tomatoes, peppers, eggplant, sweet corn, green beans, yellow squash, zucchini, herbs, and avocadoes. Citrus fruit harvested included white and red grapefruit, oranges, tangerines, and tangelos. For more information, consult the Crop Progress - State Stories reports, which is produced monthly December through March.

 

Appendix 1
Additional March departures from normal data for select Florida locations (Source: NWS).

Station Average Temperature (˚F) Departure from Normal (˚F) Total Rainfall (in.) Departure from Normal (in.)
Gainesville 66.1 +3.4 12.59 +9.10
Sarasota 71.7 +3.6 2.51 -0.34
Melbourne 71.8 +3.2 5.09 +2.40
Fort Myers 75.8 +5.5 0.43 -1.64
West Palm Beach 75.2 +4.1 2.69 -0.62

 

Appendix 2
Select daily record high maximum temperatures broken or tied during March (compiled from NOAA).

Location Date Record (˚F) Broken/Tied Last
Key West 3 93 Broken 85 in 2019
Tampa 4 89 Broken 88 in 1961
Crestview 4 86 Broken 83 in 1951
Tarpon Springs 5 88 Broken 87 in 1997
Fort Myers 5 90 Tied 90 in 1961
Jacksonville Beach 6 89 Broken 88 in 1945
Live Oak 6 88 Broken 86 in 2003
Panama City 6 81 Broken 80 in 2004
Venice 6 89 Broken 86 in 2003
Tampa 6 89 Broken 86 in 1983
Key West 6 87 Broken 84 in 2015
Bradenton 7 87 Broken 86 in 1985
Cross City 7 86 Broken 85 in 1961
Usher Tower 7 88 Tied 88 in 1974
Gainesville 7 87 Broken 86 in 1961
Tampa 7 88 Broken 86 in 1995
Key West 7 88 Broken 85 in 2008
Clermont 8 90 Broken 87 in 2003
Hastings 8 87 Broken 84 in 1996
Kissimmee 8 88 Broken 87 in 2003
Orlando 8 89 Broken 87 in 1991
Key West 8 89 Broken 88 in 1967
Fort Lauderdale Beach 9 85 Broken 84 in 2003
Jacksonville Beach 9 86 Broken 84 in 1951
Gainesville 9 85 Tied 85 in 2019
Key West 9 88 Broken 85 in 2003
Daytona Beach 10 85 Broken 83 in 1964
Hastings 10 85 Broken 83 in 2000
Jacksonville Beach 10 86 Broken 83 in 1993
Perrine 11 89 Broken 87 in 2017
Plant City 11 91 Broken 90 in 2019
Key West 11 89 Broken 86 in 2019
Miami 12 90 Broken 87 in 2014
Key West 12 90 Broken 87 in 1968
Perrine 13 89 Broken 87 in 2019
Key West 17 89 Broken 87 in 1975
Bradenton 18 89 Broken 87 in 2020
Plant City 18 94 Broken 92 in 1945
Orlando 18 91 Broken 90 in 1982
Key West 18 89 Broken 86 in 2003
Lakeland 18 91 Broken 89 in 1963
Clermont 19 94 Broken 91 in 2020
Key West 19 89 Broken 86 in 2020
Ochopee 20 91 Broken 89 in 2003
Key West 21 89 Broken 85 in 2020
Venice 22 88 Broken 87 in 2012
Tampa 22 88 Broken 86 in 2020
Key West 22 93 Broken 87 in 1977
Key West 23 92 Broken 85 in 2020
Naples 25 88 Tied 88 in 1975
Fort Myers 29 91 Tied 91 in 2020
Key West 30 90 Broken 87 in 1991

Prepared by Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

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November Key Points:

  • Temperatures were below normal across the state for the month.
  • Precipitation in the Florida Panhandle was below normal in November, the first time in 7 months for some places in the region, while precipitation in the rest of the state was above normal.
  • Abnormally dry conditions emerged in the northern Panhandle region toward the end of the month.
  • The 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially ended as the third most active year on record.
  • The December outlook favors above normal temperatures and continued dryness with below normal precipitation.

 

Average temperatures in November were below normal across the state. Average temperature departures ranged from -4.3 ̊F in Jacksonville to -0.4 ̊F in Orlando for the month (see Table 1 and Appendix 1 for select cities). Much of the state experienced cooler-than-normal temperatures during the month and especially during the first half of the month. Only one daily high maximum temperature record was set, and no daily high minimum temperature records were set during the month; however, there were several daily low maximum temperature records set, particularly early in the month.

Table 1.  November average temperatures and departures from normal ( ̊F) for selected cities.

Station Mean Temperature Departure from Normal
Pensacola 59.8 -1.6
Tallahassee 57.2 -3.0
Jacksonville 58.0 -4.3
Orlando 67.8 -0.4
Tampa 68.4 -1.4
Miami 73.1 -1.7
Key West 73.9 -2.7 

 

Rainfall totals in November were below normal in the Panhandle and above normal across the Peninsula (Figure 1). Monthly departures from normal ranged from -4.11 inches in Pensacola to +2.41 inches in Orlando (Table 2 and Appendix 1). Much of the Panhandle was drier than normal, and the western Panhandle broke its wet streak with above normal precipitation for the past several months. Pensacola has had wetter than normal conditions since April, but it experienced its fourth driest November on record. Pensacola maintains a surplus in annual rainfall due to excessive rainfall in prior months with an annual total of 86.65 inches so far, which is just shy of 24 inches above normal to date. Venice and Hollywood had their second wettest Novembers on record.

Table 2. November precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Station Total Rainfall Departure from Normal
Pensacola 0.31 -4.11
Tallahassee 0.58 -2.52
Jacksonville 3.19 +1.19
Orlando 4.20 +2.41
Tampa 3.52 +2.12
Miami 4.38 +0.85
Key West 2.80 +0.75 

 

Figure 1. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for November (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

Figure 1.  A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for November (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

 

La Niña Advisory.

La Niña conditions, the cool phase of the ENSO climate pattern, returned to the tropical Pacific Ocean in October. Below-average subsurface temperatures (averaged from 180-100°W) strengthened significantly over the past month, as negative anomalies were observed at depth across most of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. There is now a 90% chance of La Niña conditions continuing in the Northern Hemisphere winter, and it is likely to continue into spring 2022 (~50% during March-May). At its peak, a moderate-strength La Niña is favored. ENSO-neutral conditions could potentially return during April-June 2022.

 

Hazardous Weather Events in November.

According to the Local Storm Reports issued by the local National Weather Service offices serving Florida, there were 209 individual local reports of hazardous weather events recorded across the state during the month of November (see Table 4 for a breakdown by event type). Heavy rain affected several parts of the state on the 5th and 6th, including Volusia and Collier Counties which experienced over 7 and 9 inches of rainfall, respectively. Further, high water levels caused coastal flooding in several places across the state on the 7th. The Mayport tide gauge in Duval County reached its 6th highest water level on record at 2.51 feet above MHHW, and the Fernandina Beach tide gauge reached its 7th highest water level on record, reaching 2.93 feet above MHHW. These are the highest water levels ever to occur with a non-tropical weather system. Heavy rainfall again affected parts of the state later in the month. On the 21st, 10-11 inches of rain fell in parts of St. Lucie County near River Park.

 

Table 4. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of November (compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet).

Report Type Number of Reports
Coastal Flood 67
Flash Flood 15
Flood 21
Dense Fog 1
Heavy Rain 30
Marine Thunderstorm Wind 5
Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gust 54
Non-Thunderstorm Wind Damage 8
Tornado/Waterspout/Funnel Cloud 0/1/0
Thunderstorm Wind Damage 0
Thunderstorm Wind Gust 6
Lightning 0
High Surf 1

 

Drought-Related Impacts.

Much of November remained drought free across the state. Northeast Florida experienced abnormally dry conditions (D0) in early November but was drought free by mid-month. By November 30, abnormally dry conditions emerged in northern sections of the Panhandle, with 5.2% of the state experiencing abnormally dry conditions according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

As of November 30, the Lake Okeechobee water level was at 15.94 ft. above sea level (Feet-NGVD29), which is above the average for this time of the year. The water level remained above average throughout the month. At the first of the month, the water level was 15.85 ft. above sea level.

 

drought monitor

 

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

During mid-November, topsoil moisture levels were adequate for 72% of the state, short in 10%, and very short in 1% of the state; 17% of the state was in surplus. By the end of November, topsoil moisture levels were adequate in 65% of the state, short in 24%, and very short in 2%; 9% of the state was in surplus. For more information, consult the weekly Crop Progress and Conditions report published by the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service.

 

Appendix 1
Additional November departures from normal data for select Florida locations (Source: NWS).

Station Average Temperature (˚F) Departure from Normal (˚F) Total Rainfall (in.) Departure from Normal (in.)
Gainesville 59.8 -2.9 3.36 +1.57
Sarasota 67.6 -2.5 1.44 -0.37
Melbourne 67.0 -3.7 4.20 +1.65
Fort Myers 70.8 -0.7 2.45 +0.67
West Palm Beach 71.5 -1.5 6.54 +2.92

Prepared by Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

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June Key Points:

  • Average temperatures were near normal during the month.
  • Rainfall totals in June were mixed, with some places receiving well above normal rainfall and other places slightly below normal.
  • Abnormally dry conditions (D0) persist in some places in South Florida, but moderate drought has dissipated with the onset of the wet season.
  • Tropical Storm Claudette impacted the western Florida Panhandle, leading to high surf and localized flooding.

 

Average temperatures in June were near normal across the state. Average temperature departures ranged from -1.3F in Key West to +0.9F in Tampa for the month (see Table 1 and Appendix 1 for select cities). There were only a few daily high maximum temperature records set, but many daily high minimum records were set during the month (see Appendix 2).

Table 1.  June average temperatures and departures from normal ( ̊F) for selected cities.

Station Mean Temperature Departure from Normal
Pensacola 81.3 -0.4
Tallahassee 80.8 0
Jacksonville 79.1 -1.2
Orlando 81.9 +0.7
Tampa 83.8 +0.9
Miami 82.7 -0.1
Key West 82.8 -1.3 

 

Rainfall departures from normal in June were mixed, with many areas well above normal and other areas slightly below normal. Rainfall across the state increased in June compared to the previous month with the onset of the wet season, which provided drought relief to some parts of south Florida though much of the southern Peninsula still had below normal rainfall (Figure 1). Monthly departures from normal ranged from +5.23 inches in Tampa to -1.93 inches in Miami (Table 2 and Appendix 1). The Panhandle was particularly wet during the middle to latter part of the month as Tropical Storm Claudette impacted the western Panhandle on the 19th, which was followed by a slow-moving cold front that produced heavy rainfall and thunderstorms and led to flash flooding in the area. Pensacola set a new one-day rainfall record for the 19th with 3.99 inches due to Tropical Storm Claudette. Several additional daily rainfall records were set during the month of June.

Table 2. June precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Station Total Rainfall Departure from Normal
Pensacola 12.26 +4.94
Tallahassee 5.84 -1.92
Jacksonville 9.71 +2.11
Orlando 7.06 -0.99
Tampa 12.60 +5.23
Miami 12.44 +1.93
Key West 2.58 -1.65 

 

Figure 1. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for June (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

Figure 1.  A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for June (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

 

ENSO-Neutral Conditions.

ENSO-neutral conditions currently exist and are likely to remain through the summer (78% chance for June-August). There is more uncertainty in the models after summer based on the latest IRI/CPC models. There is a 51% chance that neutral conditions will persist in the fall (August - October) and a slightly greater chance for La Niña conditions to potentially redevelop during fall and last through the winter season (66% chance during November-January).

 

Hazardous Weather Events in June.

According to the Local Storm Reports issued by the local National Weather Service offices serving Florida, there were 447 individual local reports of hazardous weather events recorded across the state during the month of June (see Table 4 for a breakdown by event type). Thunderstorm activity throughout the month resulted in flash flooding and peak wind gusts exceeding 40 mph in several instances. Straight-line winds impacted Brevard County on the 13th when winds were estimated to be between 65-70 mph, which resulted in significant damage to a couple of homes that had their roofs uplifted. Tropical Storm Claudette impacted the western Florida Panhandle on the 19th, with gusts peaking at 81 mph and high surf of 6-12 feet flooded local beaches and roadways. No injuries or fatalities were reported in Florida, though at least 14 people died in Alabama due to the storm.

 

Table 4. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of June (compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet).

Report Type Number of Reports
Flood 19
Coastal Flood 2
Flash Flood 7
Hail 34
Heavy Rain 38
Marine Thunderstorm Wind 77
Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gust 2
Tornado/Waterspout/Funnel Cloud 0/13/3
Thunderstorm Wind Damage 76
Thunderstorm Wind Gust 165
Lightning 3
Rip Currents 5
Wildfire 3

 

Drought-Related Impacts.

From early to mid-June, moderate drought (D1) existed across much of the southern Peninsula, and both northern and southern Florida were experiencing abnormally dry conditions. As of June 29, abnormally dry conditions existed across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula and any areas that were in moderate drought earlier in the month have dissipated. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, about 11% of the state was experiencing abnormally dry conditions (D0) by the end of the month, down from 26% the week before.

As of June 30, the Lake Okeechobee water level was at 12.77 ft. above sea level (Feet-NGVD29), which is just below the average for this time of the year. At the first of the month, the water level was 12.79 ft. above sea level.

 

drought monitor

 

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

During mid-June, topsoil moisture levels were adequate for 60% of the state, short in 32%, and very short in 8%, while no part of the state was in surplus. By the end of June, topsoil moisture levels were adequate in 73% of the state, short in 10%, and very short in just 1% of the state; 16% of the state was in surplus. Much of the state had either fair (29%), good (53%) or excellent (10%) pasture and range conditions by the end of the month. For more information, consult the weekly Crop Progress and Conditions report published by the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service.

 

Appendix 1
Additional June departures from normal data for select Florida locations (Source: NWS).

Station Average Temperature (˚F) Departure from Normal (˚F) Total Rainfall (in.) Departure from Normal (in.)
Gainesville 79.8 -0.1 11.38 +3.82
Sarasota 82.6 +0.8 9.20 +2.15
Melbourne 81.4 -0.5 6.61 -0.49
Fort Myers 83.0 +0.7 11.58 +1.92
West Palm Beach 82.7 +1.0 6.85 -1.63

 

Appendix 2
Select daily record high minimum temperatures tied or broken during June (compiled from NOAA).

Location Date Record (˚F) Broken/Tied Last
Orlando 5 75 Tied 75 in 2019
Vero Beach 7 78 Broken 77 in 2016
Daytona Beach 7 78 Broken 77 in 1950
Orlando 7 78 Broken 77 in 1903
Lakeland 7 77 Broken 75 in 1982
Daytona Beach 8 79 Broken 78 in 2013
Jacksonville Beach 8 80 Broken 76 in 2011
West Palm Beach 8 80 Tied 80 in 2020
Clermont 9 77 Broken 76 in 2020
Miami 10 80 Tied 80 in 2020
Fort Myers 12 78 Broken 77 in 2009
Bradenton 13 78 Broken 77 in 2016
Clermont 13 76 Broken 75 in 2020
Plant City 13 77 Broken 76 in 2016
Venice 13 80 Broken 79 in 1997
Fort Myers 13 79 Broken 78 in 1998
Jacksonville Beach 18 78 Broken 77 in 2019
Perrine 19 79 Broken 76 in 1993
Plant City 19 77 Broken 76 in 1990
Vero Beach 19 78 Broken 76 in 2017
West Palm Beach 19 81 Broken 78 in 2017
Lakeland 19 78 Broken 76 in 1969
Bradenton 20 80 Broken 78 in 2019
Plant City 20 79 Broken 75 in 2019
Sanford 20 78 Broken 76 in 2013
Key West 20 83 Tied 83 in 2020
Tampa 20 82 Broken 80 in 2018
Orlando 20 79 Broken 77 in 2009
Sanford 21 79 Broken 75 in 2017
Mayport 26 78 Broken 76 in 2020
Vero Beach 27 77 Broken 76 in 2017
Lakeland 29 77 Broken 76 in 1978

Prepared by Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

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May Key Points:

  • May was near normal and dry for much of Florida.
  • Moderate drought conditions (D1) expanded across southwestern Florida during the month, but this is likely to be ameliorated with the onset of the summer rainy season.
  • Wildfire risk increased across the state, particularly over central and south Florida.
  • Above-normal tropical cyclone activity is likely (60%) for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
  • Monthly climate data are now compared to the new normals (1991-2020), which were made official in early May.

 

Average temperatures in May were generally within +/- 2 ̊F of normal across the state. Average temperature departures ranged from -2.6 ̊F in Jacksonville to +2.7 ̊F in West Palm Beach for the month (see Table 1 and Appendix 1 for select cities) West Palm Beach had its warmest May on record. Many daily high maximum and daily high minimum temperature records were set during the month (see Appendices 2 and 3).

Table 1.  May average temperatures and departures from normal ( ̊F) for selected cities.

Station Mean Temperature Departure from Normal
Pensacola 74.8 -1.2
Tallahassee 74.0 -1.2
Jacksonville 72.3 -2.6
Orlando 78.5 +1.2
Tampa 81.1 +1.6
Miami 81.2 +1.1
Key West 81.1 0  

 

Rainfall totals in May were below normal across the state, especially in parts of south Florida, while the western Panhandle saw a surplus of rainfall. Much of Florida has been drier than normal over the past 90 days, and this trend continued in May (Figure 1). During mid to late May, a blocking pattern emerged over the eastern U.S. with a strong upper-level high pressure system commonly associated with slow-moving and persistent weather patterns. This led to heavy rainfall and wetter-than-normal conditions across the western and central Gulf Coast regions, but dry and hot conditions over Florida and much of the Southeast. The western Panhandle region was the only area with above normal rainfall during May. By the end of the month, south Florida had gone over 3 weeks without any measurable rainfall. Monthly departures from normal ranged from +4.59 inches in Pensacola to -4.30 inches in West Palm Beach (Table 2 and Appendix 1). Orlando and Ft. Myers had their driest May on record with 0.17 and 0.04 inches of rainfall, respectively. Several other cities ranked among the driest on record for May as well, including Lakeland (2nd driest), Homestead (4th driest), West Palm Beach (5th driest), and Ft. Pierce (3rd driest).

Table 2. May precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Station Total Rainfall Departure from Normal
Pensacola 8.49 +4.59
Tallahassee 1.46 -1.90
Jacksonville 0.48 -2.94
Orlando 0.17 -3.85
Tampa 0.16 -2.44
Miami 2.68 -3.64
Key West 3.09 -0.03 

 

Figure 1. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for May (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

Figure 1.  A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for May (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

 

ENSO-Neutral Conditions.

The La Niña advisory ended in early May, shifting to ENSO-neutral conditions. Neutral conditions are expected to persist through summer (67% chance June-August), with more uncertainty in the models after summer based on the latest IRI/CPC models. There is a chance for La Niña conditions to redevelop during late fall or winter (50-55% chance), but given large uncertainty confidence in ENSO-neutral for the coming seasons is highest.

 

Hazardous Weather Events in May.

According to the Local Storm Reports issued by the local National Weather Service offices serving Florida, there were 127 individual local reports of hazardous weather events recorded across the state during the month of May (see Table 4 for a breakdown by event type). Severe storms swept through the Panhandle on May 10th, and lightning struck I-10 causing an accident and two injuries. Wildfires were active throughout the month. As of May 25, there were 61 active wildfires across the state with most of those contained, according to the Florida Forest Service. The Indian River County fire, known as the Tree Frog Fire, has burned roughly 800 acres and shut down I-95 for part of a day. In addition, wildfires have destroyed or damaged homes in multiple counties including St. Lucie, Marion and Collier Counties.

 

Table 4. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of May (compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet).

Report Type Number of Reports
Flood 5
Hail 11
Marine Thunderstorm Wind 13
Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gust 3
Tornado/Waterspout/Funnel Cloud 0/18/1
Thunderstorm Wind Damage 9
Thunderstorm Wind Gust 38
Lightning 2
Rip Currents 7
Wildfire 20

 

Drought-Related Impacts.

By the end of May, abnormally dry conditions existed across southern Florida and southwestern Florida was in moderate drought (D1). From early to mid-May, abnormally dry conditions existed across parts of the southern Peninsula, and pockets of moderate drought expanded across extreme southwestern Florida. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, about 21% of the state was experiencing abnormally dry conditions (D0) and roughly 7% was experiencing moderate drought (D1) by the end of the month.

As of May 31, the Lake Okeechobee water level was at 12.82 ft. above sea level (Feet-NGVD29), which is just below the average for this time of the year. At the first of the month, the water level was 13.99 ft. above sea level.

 

drought monitor

 

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

During mid-May, topsoil moisture levels were adequate for 57% of the state, short in 31%, and very short in 3%, while 9% of the state was in surplus. By the end of May, topsoil moisture levels were adequate in 30% of the state, short in 46%, and very short in 24% of the state; no part of the state was in surplus. Much of the state had either fair (34%), good (18%) or excellent (5%) pasture and range conditions by the end of the month. For more information, consult the weekly Crop Progress and Conditions report published by the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service.

 

Appendix 1
Additional May departures from normal data for select Florida locations (Source: NWS).

Station Average Temperature (˚F) Departure from Normal (˚F) Total Rainfall (in.) Departure from Normal (in.)
Gainesville 73.4 -1.6 1.10 -1.98
Sarasota 78.6 +0.8 0.29 -2.29
Melbourne 78.3 +0.2 1.34 -2.19
Fort Myers 80.7 +1.4 0.04 -3.42
West Palm Beach 81.4 +2.7 0.61 -4.30

 

Appendix 2
Select daily record high maximum temperatures tied or broken during May (compiled from NOAA).

Location Date Record (˚F) Broken/Tied Last
Punta Gorda 1 93 Tied 93 in 2017
West Palm Beach 2 92 Broken 91 in 1962
Plant City 3 98 Broken 96 in 2002
Orlando 3 95 Tied 95 in 2002
Clermont 4 98 Tied 98 in 2002
Punta Gorda 4 96 Broken 94 in 1986
Tampa 4 94 Broken 92 in 2002
Mayport 4 93 Broken 91 in 2010
Bradenton 5 92 Broken 91 in 2003
Clermont 5 99 Broken 96 in 2002
Fort Lauderdale Beach 5 90 Broken 89 in 2017
Wauchula 5 96 Broken 95 in 2017
Lakeland 5 96 Broken 95 in 1995
Jacksonville 5 97 Broken 95 in 1995
Daytona Beach 6 95 Broken 93 in 2003
Lisbon 6 95 Broken 92 in 1991
Fort Lauderdale 7 92 Tied 92 in 2020
Perrine 7 91 Broken 90 in 2020
Hialeah 8 99 Broken 93 in 1994
Bradenton 9 93 Broken 92 in 2003
Fort Lauderdale Beach 9 91 Broken 87 in 2019
Hialeah 9 98 Broken 96 in 1987
Clermont 11 97 Tied 97 in 2009
Lakeland 11 95 Broken 94 in 1995
Miami 13 94 Tied 94 in 2019
Perrine 14 94 Broken 92 in 2017

 

Appendix 3
Select daily record high minimum temperatures tied or broken during May (compiled from NOAA).

Location Date Record (˚F) Broken/Tied Last
Orlando 1 73 Broken 72 in 2017
West Palm Beach 2 77 Tied 77 in 2016
Usher Tower 3 73 Broken 70 in 2010
Vero Beach 3 74 Broken 73 in 2019
Key West 3 81 Broken 80 in 2019
Tampa 3 76 Tied 76 in 2016
West Palm Beach 3 78 Broken 76 in 2011
Pensacola 3 74 Tied 74 in 2002
Cross City 4 72 Broken 69 in 1956
Wewahitchka 4 74 Broken 72 in 2010
Miami 4 79 Broken 78 in 2010
West Palm Beach 4 78 Tied 78 in 1978
Plant City 5 74 Broken 73 in 2010
Orlando 5 76 Broken 74 in 2010
Bradenton 6 77 Broken 74 in 2003
Clermont 6 74 Broken 72 in 1956
Lisbon 6 73 Broken 72 in 2010
Plant City 6 76 Broken 72 in 2018
Sanford 6 75 Broken 74 in 2002
Lakeland 6 75 Broken 72 in 1991
Punta Gorda 7 75 Broken 74 in 1978
Key West 10 81 Broken 80 in 2014
West Palm Beach 10 78 Broken 77 in 2019
Venice 12 75 Tied 75 in 1974
Key West 12 81 Broken 80 in 2003
Tampa 12 77 Tied 77 in 2019
Canal Point 14 75 Tied 75 in 2015
Sanford 29 76 Broken 74 in 2000
Tampa 30 78 Broken 76 in 2017

Prepared by Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

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July Key Points:

  • Average temperatures were mixed but near normal for the month.
  • Rainfall totals in July were mixed, but most places received above-normal rainfall.
  • Drought is not currently impacting the state.
  • Abnormally dry conditions (D0) persist in some places in South Florida, but moderate drought has dissipated with the onset of the wet season.
  • Hurricane Elsa impacted Florida July 5-7; it was the first hurricane of the 2021 season and became the earliest forming fifth named storm on record in the Atlantic Basin

 

Average temperature departures in July were mixed but temperatures were near normal across the state. Average temperature departures ranged from -1.4 ̊F in Key West to +0.8 ̊F in Fort Myers for the month (see Table 1 and Appendix 1 for select cities). There were some daily high maximum temperature records set during July, but many more daily high minimum temperature records were set during the month (see Appendix 2).

Table 1.  July average temperatures and departures from normal ( ̊F) for selected cities.

Station Mean Temperature Departure from Normal
Pensacola 83.3 -0.2
Tallahassee 82.1 -0.4
Jacksonville 81.1 -1.4
Orlando 83.3 +0.7
Tampa 85.0 +1.2
Miami 83.7 -0.4
Key West 84.0 -1.4 

 

Rainfall totals in July varied, with many areas receiving well above normal rainfall but some areas were below normal. Much of Florida received above normal rainfall, including the western Panhandle, northern and central Florida, and south-central parts of the state (Figure 1). Hurricane Elsa impacted many parts of the state from July 5-7, which brought heavy rain particularly across north central Florida as it made landfall in Taylor County. Monthly departures from normal ranged from +4.02 inches in Key West to -2.61 inches in Tallahassee (Table 2 and Figure 1). Several daily rainfall records were set during the month of June; the highest recorded daily rainfall during the month occurred on the 6th with 9.01 inches of rain at Mountain Lake.

Table 2. July precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Station Total Rainfall Departure from Normal
Pensacola 8.78 +0.89
Tallahassee 4.53 -2.61
Jacksonville 8.87 +2.10
Orlando 6.44 -1.02
Tampa 7.30 -0.45
Miami 8.18 +0.82
Key West 7.65 +4.02 

 

Figure 1. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for July (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

Figure 1.  A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for July (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

 

ENSO-Neutral Conditions.

ENSO-neutral conditions currently exist and are likely to remain through the summer and early fall (51% chance August-October). There is a higher chance that La Niña conditions will redevelop during the fall (September-November) and last through the winter season (~70% chance during November-January).

 

Hazardous Weather Events in July.

According to the Local Storm Reports issued by the local National Weather Service offices serving Florida, there were 433 individual local reports of hazardous weather events recorded across the state during the month of July (see Table 4 for a breakdown by event type). Hurricane Elsa impacted parts of south, central and northern areas of the state from July 5-7 with heavy rainfall, localized flooding, riverine flooding in north and central Florida, and storm surge. There was one fatality reported in Jacksonville due to a fallen tree. Elsa made landfall in Cuba as a tropical storm and then briefly regained hurricane status over the Gulf of Mexico before making another landfall as a tropical storm in the eastern Florida Panhandle in Taylor County.

 

Table 4. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of July (compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet).

Report Type Number of Reports
Flood 21
Flash Flood 4
Hail 9
Heavy Rain 36
Marine Thunderstorm Wind 68
Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gust 0
Tornado/Waterspout/Funnel Cloud 3/16/1
Thunderstorm Wind Damage 24
Thunderstorm Wind Gust 105
Lightning 6
Rip Currents 1
Storm Surge 2
Tropical Storm 137

 

Drought-Related Impacts.

As of the end of July, drought was not impacting any part of the state. From early to mid-July, a small pocket of abnormally dry conditions persisted in the southern tip of the Peninsula, but by end of July this had dissipated. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, just 1.13% of the southern part of the state was experiencing abnormally dry conditions (D0) but with continued rainfall during the wet season this has been alleviated.

As of July 31, the Lake Okeechobee water level was at 13.70 ft. above sea level (Feet-NGVD29), which is right around the average for this time of the year. At the first of the month, the water level was 12.82 ft. above sea level.

 

drought monitor

 

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

In mid-July, topsoil moisture levels were adequate for 67% of the state, short in 4%, and 29% of the state was in surplus. By the end of July, topsoil moisture levels were adequate in 80% of the state, short in 7%, and 13% of the state was in surplus. Much of the state had either good (51%) or excellent (35%) pasture and range conditions by the end of the month. For more information, consult the weekly Crop Progress and Conditions report published by the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service.

 

Appendix 1
Additional July departures from normal data for select Florida locations (Source: NWS).

Station Average Temperature (˚F) Departure from Normal (˚F) Total Rainfall (in.) Departure from Normal (in.)
Gainesville 81.0 -0.4 13.99 +7.31
Sarasota 82.9 -0.2 10.38 +2.99
Melbourne 82.9 -0.2 5.13 -1.37
Fort Myers 84.0 +0.8 8.86 -0.52
West Palm Beach 83.3 +0.2 5.66 +0.03

 

Appendix 2
Select daily record high minimum temperatures tied or broken during July (compiled from NOAA).

Location Date Record (˚F) Broken/Tied Last
Melbourne 7 79 Broken 78 in 2010
Perrine 7 78 Broken 76 in 2017
Stuart 7 80 Tied 80 in 1973
Vero Beach 7 80 Broken 77 in 2016
Plant City 8 78 Broken 77 in 2000
Tampa 8 81 Tied 81 in 2020
Lakeland 8 77 Broken 76 in 1963
Key West 9 84 Tied 84 in 1965
Daytona Beach 15 80 Tied 80 in 2012
Key West 18 84 Tied 84 in 2019
Jacksonville Beach 22 80 Broken 79 in 2020
Punta Gorda 22 79 Broken 78 in 2015
Orlando 22 79 Broken 78 in 2015
Key West 22 84 Broken 83 in 2011
Lakeland 22 78 Broken 76 in 1995
Perry 23 77 Broken 76 in 1932
Plant City 23 79 Broken 77 in 2015
Punta Gorda 23 81 Broken 80 in 2005
Fort Myers 23 81 Broken 80 in 2005
Lakeland 23 79 Broken 76 in 1995
Jacksonville Beach 24 83 Broken 82 in 1987
Wewahitchka 27 76 Broken 75 in 1998
Lakeland 27 78 Broken 77 in 1962
Plant City 28 79 Broken 78 in 1916
Lakeland 28 77 Broken 76 in 1968
Key West 30 85 Tied 85 in 2009
Panama City 31 81 Tied 81 in 2020
Usher Tower 31 77 Broken 76 in 2010
Ochopee 31 80 Broken 79 in 1999
Key West 31 85 Tied 85 in 2019
Lakeland 31 77 Broken 76 in 1986
Tallahassee 31 77 Tied 77 in 2015
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