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Prepared by Florida Climate Center
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL

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Key Points:

  • Average temperatures in July were near or above normal for the month.
  • Drought conditions improved in July across Florida; however, small areas of northern Florida continued to experience abnormally dry conditions throughout the month.
  • La Niña conditions are favored to continue into early fall, with a 68% chance August-October 2022; the chances of La Niña increase in fall and early winter to a 63-70% likelihood.
  • The tropics were quiet in July, but we are entering the peak of the Atlantic Basin hurricane season over the next couple of months.

 

Average temperatures in July were about normal or above normal across Florida. Average temperature departures from normal ranged from -0.3 ̊F in Key West to +2.5 ̊F in Tampa for the month (see Table 1 and Appendix 1 for select cities). Jacksonville Beach, Tampa, and Plant City had their hottest Julys on record, and Orlando and Fort Lauderdale recorded their 2nd-hottest Julys on record. While Key West was near normal, it broke many daily high maximum and minimum temperature records throughout the month (see appendices 2 and 3 for select daily high maximum and minimum records).

Table 1.  July average temperatures and departures from normal ( ̊F) for selected cities.

Station Mean Temperature Departure from Normal
Pensacola 83.5 0.0
Tallahassee 82.3 -0.2
Jacksonville 82.6 +0.1
Orlando 84.8 +2.2
Tampa 86.3 +2.5
Miami 84.7 +0.6
Key West 85.1 -0.3 

 

Rainfall totals in July were variable but generally above normal across the Panhandle and north Florida, and below normal in much of south Florida. The monthly precipitation departures from normal ranged from -4.53 inches in Melbourne to +5.86 inches in Tallahassee (Table 2 and Appendix 1). Ample rain fell across portions of northern Florida due to unsettled weather, with roughly 65% and 74% of the month with measurable rain in Pensacola and Tallahassee, respectively. Jacksonville had its 7th-wettest July on record. Conversely, a deficit of rain fell across southeastern and central Florida. This was the 3rd-driest July on record at Fort Pierce and Fort Lauderdale.

Table 2. July precipitation totals and departures from normal (inches) for selected cities.

Station Total Rainfall Departure from Normal
Pensacola 11.17 +3.28
Tallahassee 13.00 +5.86
Jacksonville 9.95 +3.18
Orlando 4.91 -2.55
Tampa 11.99 +4.24
Miami 4.81 -2.55
Key West 2.37 -1.26 

 

Figure 1. A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for July (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

Figure 1.  A graphical depiction of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (inches) for July (courtesy of NOAA, NWS).

 

La Niña Advisory.

La Niña is still favored to continue through 2022. By mid-July, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific remained below average. La Niña conditions are expected to persist into the late Northern Hemisphere summer and early fall (68% chance August-October 2022). The chances for La Niña to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter increase to a 63-70% likelihood. This will likely be the third year in a row with La Niña, which has only happened twice in the past ~70 years.

 

Hazardous Weather Events in July.

According to the Local Storm Reports issued by the local National Weather Service offices serving Florida, there were 297 individual local reports of hazardous weather events recorded across the state during the month of July (see Table 4 for a breakdown by event type). Thunderstorms and ample rainfall affected much of northern Florida throughout the month, with monthly rainfall totals over 10 inches in many places. A lightning strike resulted in a fatality in New Smyrna Beach on the 19th. While several waterspouts were reported, there were no tornado reports this month and there was no tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. There are on average 7 tornadoes reported in Florida during July, based on climatology (1991-2010). While the tropics were quiet, we are on pace with the climatological average for hurricane season and are now entering the peak Atlantic Hurricane Season over the next couple of months.

 

Table 4. Breakdown of storm reports submitted in Florida during the month of July (compiled from Iowa State University/Iowa Environmental Mesonet).

Report Type Number of Reports
Flash Flood 5
Heavy Rain 21
Flood 19
Hail 18
Lightning 10
Marine Thunderstorm Wind 60
Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gust 2
Non-Thunderstorm Wind Damage 0
Tornado/Waterspout/Funnel Cloud 0/18/4
Thunderstorm Wind Damage 28
Thunderstorm Wind Gust 105
Rip Currents 4
Wildfire 3
Tropical Storm 0

 

Daily Record Events in July.

Table 5.Summary of daily records broken or set in Florida in July (source: NCEI Daily Weather Records).

Category Number of Records
Highest daily max. temp. 34
Highest daily min. temp. 45
Lowest daily max. temp. 9
Lowest daily min. temp. 11
Highest daily precipitation 28
Total 127

 

Weather/Climate Highlight of the Month.

Tropical Strom Colin was the only tropical system that formed in July (July 2-3) in the Atlantic Basin, which impacted the coastal Carolinas before moving out into the open ocean. It was a small, surprise storm that did not produce much rain. Maximum winds were around 40 mph. This was the third named storm of the season and occurred ahead of the climatological average for the Atlantic hurricane season.

 

Drought-Related Impacts.

At the beginning of July, 23.5% of the state was experiencing abnormally dry conditions (D0), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Abnormally dry conditions steadily improved throughout the month, and as of July 26, only 6.7% of the state was in abnormally dry conditions (Figure 2 below).

As of July 31, the Lake Okeechobee water level was 12.96 ft. above sea level (Feet-NGVD29), which is below average for this time of the year. The water level remained below average throughout the month. At the first of the month, the water level was 12.90 ft. above sea level.

 

Figure 2. A graphical depiction of the current drought conditions in Florida according to the U.S. Drought Monitor (courtesy of the National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln).

drought monitor

 

Agriculture-Related Impacts.

During mid-July, topsoil moisture conditions were adequate in 84% of the state, short in 6%, and very short in 1% of the state, while 9% of the state had surplus moisture conditions. Near the end of July, topsoil moisture had declined somewhat with levels adequate in 79% of the state, short in 13%, and very short in 1% of the state; 7% of the state was in surplus. For more information, consult the Crop Progress and Conditions report, which is published by the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service.

 

Appendix 1
Additional July departures from normal data for select Florida locations (Source: NWS).

Station Average Temperature (˚F) Departure from Normal (˚F) Total Rainfall (in.) Departure from Normal (in.)
Gainesville 82.4 +1.0 10.09 +3.41
Sarasota 83.5 +0.4 5.80 -1.59
Melbourne 83.5 +0.4 1.97 -4.53
Fort Myers 85.3 +2.1 9.52 +0.14
West Palm Beach 85.4 +2.3 2.00 -3.63

 

Appendix 2
Select daily record high maximum temperatures broken or tied during July (compiled from NOAA).

Location Date Record (˚F) Broken/Tied Last
Key West 1 96 Broken 95 in 2019
Key West 3 95 Broken 93 in 2020
Jacksonville Beach 4 97 Tied 97 in 1978
Key West 4 96 Broken 95 in 2020
Key West 5 96 Broken 94 in 2020
Clermont 6 99 Broken 98 in 2019
Plant City 8 98 Tied 98 in 1969
Key West 8 96 Broken 95 in 2020
Orlando 9 97 Tied 97 in 1992
Daytona Beach 9 97 Tied 97 in 2010
Vero Beach 10 97 Broken 96 in 1995
Key West 11 96 Broken 94 in 2020
Kissimmee 13 99 Broken 98 in 1981
Orlando 13 99 Broken 98 in 1937
Plant City 14 99 Tied 99 in 1916
Key West 14 95 Broken 94 in 2020
Key West 17 95 Broken 94 in 2019
Orlando 18 97 Tied 97 in 1983
Key West 18 98 Broken 93 in 2021
Key West 19 97 Broken 93 in 2019
Key West 20 96 Broken 93 in 2021
Orlando 21 96 Broken 95 in 2012
Clermont 22 98 Broken 97 in 2021
Key West 22 95 Broken 94 in 2011
Key West 24 97 Broken 94 in 2011
Key West 25 96 Broken 94 in 2011
Tampa 29 97 Tied 97 in 1993
Canal Point 30 96 Broken 95 in 2017
Tampa 30/td> 97 Broken 96 in 1961
Plant City 31 99 Tied 99 in 2019
Tampa 31 97 Broken 96 in 1958

 

Appendix 3
Select daily record high minimum temperatures broken or tied during July (compiled from NOAA).

Location Date Record (˚F) Broken/Tied Last
Key West 1 87 Broken 84 in 2019
Perrine 2 78 Broken 77 in 2006
Key West 2 87 Broken 86 in 2019
Key West 4 86 Broken 85 in 2019
Fort Lauderdale 5 80 Tied 80 in 2017
Mayport 5 78 Tied 78 in 2007
Tampa 5 81 Tied 81 in 2016
Lakeland 5 77 Broken 76 in 1995
Fort Pierce 6 80 Broken 79 in 1934
Hastings 6 77 Broken 76 in 2017
Melbourne 6 79 Tied 79 in 2011
Stuart 6 80 Tied 80 in 1967
Marianna 7 76 Broken 75 in 2017
Key West 8 87 Broken 84 in 2007
Tallahassee 8 78 Broken 76 in 2016
Chipley 9 77 Broken 76 in 2016
Tampa 9 81 Tied 81 in 2020
West Palm Beach 9 81 Tied 81 in 2015
Key West 9 87 Broken 84 in 2021
Plant City 10 80 Broken 79 in 2020
Ochoppee 10 82 Broken 79 in 2005
Key West 10 87 Broken 83 in 2016
Lakeland 11 77 Broken 76 in 1969
Orlando 12 80 Broken 79 in 2007
Key West 12 86 Broken 83 in 2020
Clermont 13 78 Broken 77 in 2011
Miami 13 82 Tied 82 in 2019
Key West 13 88 Broken 85 in 2020
Key West 17 87 Broken 85 in 2019
Usher Tower 18 78 Broken 76 in 1998
Key West 18 89 Broken 84 in 2021
Tampa 19 83 Broken 81 in 2018
Pensacola 19 82 Broken 79 in 2002
Tampa 20 83 Broken 81 in 1942
Key West 20 86 Broken 84 in 1962
Key West 21 88 Broken 84 in 2021
Orlando 22 80 Broken 79 in 2021
Key West 24 86 Broken 85 in 2011
Stuart 25 82 Broken 81 in 1993
West Palm Beach 25 83 Broken 82 in 2011
Key West 25 87 Broken 85 in 2011
Daytona Beach 26 81 Broken 80 in 2020
Perrine 30 79 Broken 77 in 1995
Lakeland 30 77 Broken 76 in 1970
Key West 31 87 Broken 85 in 2021
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© Florida Climate Center
Florida Climate Center